OTTAWA — Nearly half of Canadians say they would vote Liberal if an election were called today, giving Prime Minister Mark Carney’s party its largest lead since 2016.
Forty-nine per cent of decided voters would vote for the Liberals, while 35 per cent would vote Conservative, according to the Postmedia-Leger poll that was taken between Feb. 27 to March 2. That’s a two-point jump for the Liberals and a three-point drop
for the Conservatives since late January
.
The last time the Liberals were polling this high was in February 2016, when the party under a newly elected prime minister Justin Trudeau was polling at 49 per cent, while the Conservatives under interim leader Rona Ambrose were polling at 25 per cent.
Other parties continued to poll low, with support for the Bloc Québécois falling to five per cent in Thursday’s poll, compared to six per cent in January. While support for the New Democratic Party remained stable at five per cent.
The poll also showed 59 per cent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of the Liberal government led by Carney.
“We’re actually a full year in of having prime minister Carney managing the affairs of the government,” said Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns.
“They’ve done a very good job of keeping government activity, government message, I would say, on track in terms of what Canadians are expecting of their government during these times.”
Enns said the poll is “not good news” for the Conservatives whose support has stayed consistently around 37-38 per cent over the last 18 months.
“Now suddenly they have lost some support,” said Enns. “I think it probably should be concerning to them.”
Enns said this could be attributed to their old messaging falling flat but could also have to do with Carney’s personal approval ratings.
The poll said 61 per cent of respondents approve of Carney’s performance, while 31 per cent disapproved. Notably, western provinces showed high approval ratings for Carney, at 53 per cent for Alberta and 59 per cent for both Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Enns said it just goes to show what happens when a federal leader doesn’t go out of their way to pick fights with certain regions of the country.
Enns also noted Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has taken two international trips with Carney and has come back with results for his constituents, with a rollback of Chinese tariffs on canola exports and more recently, a $2.6-billion deal to supply India with uranium from Saskatchewan-based Cameco.
“He’s coming back to Saskatchewan with some tangible success, and undoubtedly, Premier Moe is having to say good things about the prime minister to Saskatchewan residents,” he said.
Enns said that some conservative-minded voters are liking what they are seeing from Carney.
Over the past few months, speculation that Carney may call an early election to secure a majority government has persisted, as the Liberals have remained strong in the polls.
However, around half of Canadians polled said the next election should be in 2029, as set out in the fixed election date legislation.
“Canadians don’t want an election now, they quite frankly don’t want one this spring,” said Enns. “And when you like what you’re getting, which 60 per cent of Canadians like how the government’s performing, they like how the prime minister is performing, they’re not interested in changing that.”
Nearly 71 per cent of Liberal voters would like an election in 2029.
Notably, nearly 24 per cent of Conservative voters would like an election now; 19 per cent would like an election this spring, and 20 per cent would like an election this fall.
“I have to just chalk that up to sort of that hard sort of partisanship,” said Enns. “That a certain swath of that Conservative Party, that intensity that they hold, that they’ll take an election whenever they can get it.”
This was an online survey of 1,627 Canadian adults, but for comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 2.43 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
National Post
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.
