The Marlins and outfielder Kyle Stowers held some extension talks earlier this offseason, reports Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, but weren’t close and the talks fell apart. She characterizes the sides as roughly $50MM apart, with Stowers and his camp targeting about $100MM while the Fish were more in the $50MM range.
Stowers, 28 in January, had a breakout season in 2025. A notable prospect with the Orioles, he hadn’t yet established himself as a big leaguer when he was flipped to Miami in the 2024 deadline deal sending Trevor Rogers to Baltimore.
Going into 2025, Stowers had 340 plate appearances spread over three seasons with a 6.2% walk rate, 33.8% strikeout rate, .208/.268/.332 line and 69 wRC+. This past season, he took a big step forward. His 27.4% strikeout rate was still high but a massive improvement over his previous work. He also pushed his walk rate to 10.5% and hit 25 home runs, leading to a .288/.368/.544 line and 149 wRC+.
He won’t be able to sustain a .356 batting average on balls in play but he’d be a strong offensive player even with a bit of regression in the luck department. He didn’t get strong defensive grades but he was around average. He missed the final six weeks of the season due to an oblique strain but FanGraphs still credited him with four wins above replacement.
Locking up that kind of player while he’s still relatively young and affordable is a sensible desire for the Marlins. Stowers has just over two years of big league service time, meaning he can still be retained for four seasons and hasn’t qualified for arbitration yet.
There has also been some recent reporting suggesting that the Marlins may be looking to increase their competitive balance tax number in 2026. Per that reporting, it’s possible that both the MLB Players Association and fellow owners take umbrage with how the Marlins have been using their revenue sharing money. With the collective bargaining agreement a year away from expiring, the club might want to put forth a better face now.
This was the situation the A’s were in last winter. They ramped up spending in an effort to avoid an MLBPA grievance. That included signing free agents like Luis Severino and José Leclerc as well as signing extensions with Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler.
The Marlins have been connected to various free agents, including Michael King and Devin Williams, but extensions are particularly good if bumping up the CBT number is the goal since a player’s CBT hit comes from the average annual value of his deal. For instance, Butler only had a $2.25MM salary in 2025 but his CBT hit was about $9.36MM since he was guaranteed $65.5MM over seven years.
From the perspective of Stowers, an extension would limit his overall earning power but he’s not on an amazing track for a huge payday. Due to his somewhat late breakout, he’s not slated to hit the open market until the winter before the 2030 season, which would be his age-32 campaign. Teams put a high value on youth these days, which won’t help Stowers. In the past decade, Freddie Freeman is the only position player free agent to get a nine-figure deal beginning at age 32 or older, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.
Though an extension might make sense for both sides, they still have to agree on the number, which is where things have apparently broken down. Per Ghiroli, Stowers’s camp was looking to get a deal somewhat like the Bryan Reynolds extension with the Pirates, which gave him $100MM in new money over seven years. The Marlins were apparently hoping for something more like the Red Sox’ extension with Ceddanne Rafaela, which paid him $50MM over an eight-year span. Since that deal came shortly after the 2024 season began, MLBTR characterizes it as $49.3MM in new money over seven years.
Reynolds and Rafaela are both outfielders but neither is a great comp for Stowers in terms of earning power. Rafaela had barely played in the majors and only had a handful of service days at the time of his deal. Reynolds, meanwhile, had already racked up over four years of service time. As mentioned, Stowers is just a bit over two years of service, putting him in between the two. Players generally get more earning power as they rack up service time and get closer to free agency.
For players under three years of service, there have been some massive nine-figure deals for guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr., though those guys were already superstars in their early 20s. Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman got $115MM and $100MM from the Astros, respectively, each beginning with his age-26 season. However, both of those guys had more major league success than Stowers does now and were a bit younger.
Kevin Kiermaier and the Rays agreed to an extension in March of 2017, when Kiermaier was still four years away from free agency. He had qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player and had already agreed to a $2.975MM salary for 2017. The deal was for six years and $53.5MM, which meant it added about $50.5MM in new money over five years, beginning with his age-28 campaign. Kiermaier had a decent floor thanks to his speed and defense but limited upside due to his tepid offense and injury-prone reputation. That deal is almost a decade old and a similar player should get more nowadays just based on inflation.
Put it all together and meeting somewhere in between $50MM and $100MM could make some sense for both parties. For now, it seems like that’s not on the table, but the two sides could resume talks later. The most common time for extensions to come together is in the spring, as teams generally focus on external additions throughout the earlier parts of the offseason.
Photo courtesy of Mady Mertens, Imagn Images
