With Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz headed into free agency on the heels of a season where the Mets shockingly missed the postseason, it goes without saying that some significant changes will be coming to the Mets’ roster this winter. Much of the focus, naturally, has been on potential additions, whether that’s bringing back Alonso and Diaz or making a splash in the starting pitching market. There’s also been plenty of talk regarding players the Mets could look to part ways with on the trade market, however, and today Jeff Passan of ESPN made clear that two more names are available on the Mets’ roster: outfielder Brandon Nimmo and right-hander Kodai Senga.
Nimmo, 33 in March, is a somewhat surprising trade candidate due to the many complications surrounding a potential deal. The veteran has spent all ten seasons of his MLB career in Queens and has a no-trade clause. Nimmo would have to agree to any trade, which would naturally limit his suitors. While hardly an albatross, his contract isn’t exactly appealing, either. Nimmo has five years left on the eight-year, $162MM contract he signed with the Mets during the 2022-23 offseason. Just over $101MM of that money has yet to be paid out, and it’s hard to imagine Nimmo approaching five years and $101MM in free agency this winter if he was a free agent.
That would likely leave the Mets in a position where they would need to pay down a significant portion of Nimmo’s contract in order to facilitate a deal. Nimmo has been generally productive throughout his time in New York but has watched his numbers fall off a bit over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, he’s slashed a combined .244/.326/.418 with 48 homers and 52 doubles, a 22.7% strikeout rate against a 9.8% walk rate, and a wRC+ of 111. He’s been worth 5.8 WAR according to Fangraphs and 5.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference over the past two years. While he was once a capable center fielder, his defense has dropped off enough that he’s more of a roughly average glove in a corner outfield spot, with -1 Outs Above Average and +3 Defensive Runs Saves in outfield this season with him starting 146 of his 147 games in the field out in left.
A two-to-three win corner outfielder is certainly something plenty of teams could use, and Nimmo does deserve acknowledgement for his reliability. Outside of his 32-game debut season in 2016, Nimmo has never posted a wRC+ below 108. Injury woes early in his career have subsided as well, and he’s played in at least 150 games with at least 650 plate appearances in each of the past four years. That four year stretch has seen him average 22 homers, 28 doubles, and a 10.2% walk rate against a 21.0% strikeout rate. With an above average track record in the outfield, he’ll surely be appealing to teams if the Mets were willing to pay down enough of his salary to make the inevitable decline as Nimmo enters his mid-to-late 30s easier to stomach.
Finding a fit for Nimmo’s services depends entirely on how much money the Mets would be willing to eat and where Nimmo would be willing to be traded. The Royals and Guardians are two of the teams most desperately in need of outfield help in the game, but they operate with small budgets and may not be the sort of consistent contender a veteran like Nimmo would surely prefer to play for. The Phillies have money to spend, a hole in the outfield, and recent success, but it would be a shock to see the Mets trade a franchise stalwart to one of their biggest rivals. Perhaps the Yankees would be a fit as they look for outfield help, though the club may simply prefer to re-sign Cody Bellinger or Trent Grisham rather than bring Nimmo into the fold.
As for Senga, the mercurial right-hander has already been known to be garnering interest on the market, though the Mets’ level of interest in moving hasn’t been clear. Passan reports that the righty is “extremely available,” however, and adds that multiple executives expect him to be traded this winter. The Orioles, Cubs, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Padres are on a long list of teams known to be looking for starting pitching help this winter, and any could make sense as trade partners for the Mets if they do decide to move Senga. The two years and $28MM guaranteed remaining on Senga’s contract could make him a particularly intriguing fit for teams hoping to fill a rotation spot on a budget like San Diego.
While the Mets are expected to add to their rotation rather than subtract this winter, room will need to be made in the rotation mix for external additions as well as up-and-coming youngsters like Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat. That’s enough to make a Senga trade worth thinking about for the front office, especially given the highs that could make him enticing to suitors have been matched by equally distressing lows.
The righty sports a career 3.00 ERA and 3.82 FIP across three seasons in the majors to go with a 26.8% strikeout rate, but an 11.1% walk rate, struggles bouncing back from injuries, and the fact that he’ll turn 33 in January all raise questions about his future. Senga struggled badly enough in the second half this past year that he agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues in September and would only have been part of the Mets’ playoff picture if their rotation mix suffered multiple October injuries, suggesting that the organization had little faith in the righty at the end of this past season.
