MLB Cy Young 2026: Long-Shot Picks to Bet on This Season

Let’s keep rolling with some season long MLB Picks. Call this Awards Week!

Up today, a tour through the Cy Young Markets. Last year’s winners were Tarik Skubal in the AL and Paul Skenes in the NL, and they return as favorites in 2026. And who can argue? Garrett Crochet in the AL maybe, as he’s nearly as good as Skubal and at +425 to +350 for Skubal it’s pretty close heading into the season. In the NL Skenes sits at +220 with Yoshi Yamamoto next at +550.

Now I don’t want to write up recommendations on any of the top three, because where is the fun in that? Or profit really; they are all one IL stint away from dropping out of the race and every pitcher is always one pitch away from that dreaded Forearm Tightness or whatever. So let’s look at the case for a few longer shots. All odds today are from DraftKings and we’ll go with half units on each wager.

American League Cy Young Picks

Cole Ragans +1300

The Royals lefty has an arsenal and track record of success to compare with the above aces, he just does not have the same level of durability.. In fact 2024 was the only one of his four MLB seasons where he stayed on the mound all year. 

And he pitched to a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Ragans only managed 62.1 IP last year, but ignore his 4.67 ERA. He had a whopping 38.1% K% and a 2.67 xERA and 2.52 SIERA. He was an ace in his limited work, so obviously we need to spike a healthy season for this pick to pay off.

Dylan Cease +3500

Cease is the diametric opposite of Ragans in that he never misses a turn. Literally. 

He has at least 32 starts in all of the last 5 seasons, and he made 12 in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. He’s flashed near-ace stuff as he had a 2.20 ERA in 2022 and a 1.07 WHIP in 2024, with a 28.6% career K% that’s pretty consistent year to year. His issues are with command as he has a 10% BB% and odd variations in batted ball luck. Cease has had a SIERA between 3.48 and 3.58 in 4 of his 5 full seasons (4.10 in the other) with K totals between 214 and 227. But oddly his actual ERA’s have fluctuated between 2.20 and 4.58. He moves on to Toronto in front of an excellent defense, so maybe it all lines up for him!

NL Cy Young Picks

Logan Webb +2000

Webb has similar durability to Cease, albeit with more consistency in actual performance but somewhat less in how he gets there. 

It’s kind of odd in that he’s very much a groundball pitcher with a career 2.8 LA, and that means you avoid the long ball but rely a lot on batted ball luck and defense that can vary from year to year. Yet Webb’s ERA’s have only ranged between 2.90 and 3.47. Part of it may be that he seems able to adjust his approach to game and team situations. In 2024 he had just a 20.5% K%, but then he spiked a career high 26.2% rate in 2025. Well in 2025 he may find he needs to ramp that up a little more and induce all those grounders to the left side where he has Matt Chapman and Willie Adames. But hey, we’re going for longer shots here so let’s take a chance that Webb figures it out.

Nolan McLean +3500

The future Mets ace pitched 48 innings in MLB last year, but still qualifies as a Rookie. And those 48 innings were terrific, with a 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 30.3% K%. Obviously it’s a stretch to post those numbers over a full season, but he’s a guy with this kind of upside so who knows? 

He’s a crazy elite athlete who played QB at Oklahoma State and a two-way player as recently as two years ago.