MLB Mailbag: Alonso, Skubal, Nationals

This week’s mailbag gets into Pete Alonso alternatives for the Mets, why many assume the Tigers won’t sign Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals will try to make a leap forward in 2026, and more.

Steve asks:

How long will the Mets give Boras and Pete Alonso to decide if they want to re-sign before shifting their focus to other first basemen, whether it be through a trade or signing?

The Mets have to make a series of decisions:

• Do they want Alonso at all?  The answer would have to be yes, even accounting for being locked into some poor defense in 2026 at either first base or right field, since Alonso and Juan Soto can’t both DH.  And perhaps Soto can improve his defense.
• If yes, what’s the maximum term?  Last winter, the Mets seemed to prefer three years, but there was probably an amount/opt-out combo where they would’ve done four years.  If David Stearns tells Boras, “There is no scenario where the Mets sign Pete for four-plus years,” then perhaps both parties can have an early answer as to whether the fit is viable.
• If Alonso and the Mets are both willing to do a three or four-year deal, where do opt-outs fit in?  These are obviously not great for the team, because if Alonso’s production tanks in the course of the deal, they’re stuck with him.

On October 1st, I wrote that Alonso will be seeking at least five years, and therefore the Mets should just let him walk.  I still feel that way, but if there are three or four-year scenarios, the Mets should at least entertain those early on.

On October 14th, I ran through the four different 30+ home run first basemen Stearns found in his seven-year tenure with the Brewers.  But let’s look at that differently and see where the Brewers ranked in first baseman WAR while Stearns was in charge:

• 2016: 10th
• 2017: 6th
• 2018: 7th
• 2019: 14th
• 2020: 14th
• 2021: 27th
• 2022: 18th

Now consider that with Alonso as the Mets’ first baseman under Stearns, the team ranked 12th in 2024 and 7th this year.

The difference is that the Mets expect more certainty than the Brewers, because as Brewers GM Stearns was not given a budget that allowed for signing a $30MM-ish first baseman.

So while it’s easy to say that Stearns should just go find the next Jesus Aguilar, he can’t (or perhaps shouldn’t) really run the risk of something like 2021, where the Brewers had some of the worst first base production in the game with Daniel Vogelbach, Keston Hiura, and Rowdy Tellez.

What are the Alonso alternatives?