This week’s mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets’ rotation, and much more.
Marshal asks:
Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A’s and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?
Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there’s a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.
In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.
A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi. He’d accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn’t able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.
We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn’t mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito’s season on September 23rd; he wasn’t able to make it back for the postseason. The righty professed full health in November. So why is he still unsigned?
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