The 2026-27 qualifying offer will come in around $23.1MM, per the calculations of MLB Trade Rumors contributor Ethan Hullihen. The official number likely won’t be released by MLB until October.
As a refresher on the system, a team can extend a one-year qualifying offer to an impending free agent if he played the entirety of the just-finished season on one team and has never previously received a QO in his career. Teams have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue a QO to an eligible player. The players then usually have ten days to asses the market before deciding whether or not to accept, though the most recent offseason gave the players 12 days.
If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team is entitled to compensation in the form of an extra draft pick. The value of that pick varies, depending on whether the team is a luxury tax payor or a recipient of revenue sharing. Conversely, the signing team is subject to draft and international bonus pool penalties, which are also dependant on tax payor/revenue sharing status. If a player rejects a QO but ultimately re-signs with his previous team, no penalties or compensation picks are applied. These links have details on the penalties and compensation in 2025.
The value of the QO is determined by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players in the league. The value generally increases over time as player salaries continue rising with inflation. Here are the QO values in past seasons:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM (8.3% increase from the year prior)
- 2014-15: $15.3MM (6.3%)
- 2015-16: $15.8MM (3.3%)
- 2016-17: $17.2MM (8.9%)
- 2017-18: $17.4MM (1.2%)
- 2018-19: $17.9MM (2.9%)
- 2019-20: $17.8MM (-0.6%)
- 2020-21: $18.9MM (6.2%)
- 2021-22: $18.4MM (-2.6%)
- 2022-23: $19.65MM (6.8%)
- 2023-24: $20.325MM (3.4%)
- 2024-25: $21.05MM (4.6%)
- 2025-26: $22.025MM (4.6%)
- 2026-27: $23.1MM (4.9%)
If MLBTR’s estimate proves to be fairly accurate, then this would be the fifth straight year of the QO rising by roughly $1MM. The percentage jump would be the greatest in the past four years. The only bigger percentage jumps in the past ten years were in seasons following slight drops.
For most players who receive a QO, it’s a formality to turn it down and then sign for a much larger guarantee on a multi-year deal. Last year was a notable exception as 13 players received a QO and four accepted: Gleyber Torres with the Tigers, Shota Imanaga with the Cubs, Trent Grisham with the Yankees and Brandon Woodruff with the Brewers. That’s an acceptance rate of over 30%. Of the 144 players to receive a QO in previous years, only 13 accepted, a rate of barely 9%.
Going into this offseason, most of the top free agents will be QO candidates, though there are some exceptions. Michael King already received a QO from the Padres last offseason. If he opts out of his contract and returns to free agency, he would not be eligible for another. The same would apply to players like Bo Bichette or Corbin Burnes, though neither player currently looks likely to opt out of his current deal. Guys like Grisham, Imanaga, Torres, Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Sonny Gray and Nick Martinez have also received QOs earlier in their careers. If any notable free agent gets traded this summer, then they would become ineligible to receive a QO at season’s end since they would not be spending the entire campaign with just one team.
Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images
