The first Test of the three-match series between New Zealand and West Indies, scheduled from December 2-6, 2025 at Hagley Oval, is set to unfold under variable weather conditions, with the highest rain risk predicted on Days 1 and 5. While the middle phase of the match is expected to enjoy clearer skies, early cloud cover, fluctuating temperatures, and brisk northwest winds may shape pitch behaviour and captaincy decisions.
NZ vs WI, 1st Test: Will rain play a spoiler?
Temperatures through the Test window are forecast to range between 8°C and 24°C, with humidity sitting between 58-73% and winds gusting up to 38 km/h. These factors are expected to assist seam bowlers, traditionally dominant at Hagley Oval. With minimal mid-Test interruptions projected, teams winning the toss on Day 1 may be tempted to bowl first and exploit the new-ball-friendly conditions.
Day 1: High rain chance and cloud cover to challenge opening hour
The opening day on December 2 brings the most unstable weather of the Test. Conditions are predicted to stay cloudy with temperatures between 8-18°C, accompanied by strong northwest winds that could reach 38 km/h, particularly in exposed pockets of the stadium.
A 25-40% probability of rain threatens to delay or disrupt the opening session. Forecast models indicate 10-20 mm of precipitation if showers align during play, prompting officials and teams to monitor updates closely. Heavy 80% cloud cover should create ideal swing conditions, giving early advantage to pacers such as Matt Henry. Batters may face a stern examination until the overhead conditions settle.
Day 2: Improved forecast with moderate seam movement expected
Conditions improve on December 3, with rain chances dipping to 20-30%, though isolated showers could still bring brief interruptions. Temperatures rise to 12-20°C, while winds ease to around 20 km/h, creating more stable playing conditions compared to Day 1.
A partly cloudy afternoon is ideal for prolonged sessions of play, but humidity hovering near 70% may still assist bowlers. Seamers from both sides – particularly New Zealand’s attack and West Indies’ Jayden Seales – are expected to benefit from the lingering movement through the air.
Day 3: Best weather window promises full day of cricket
The third day, on December 4, offers the most favourable forecast, with rain odds falling below 15%. Temperatures climb to 14-22°C, and winds ease further, settling between 15–25 km/h. Under partly sunny skies, teams should enjoy an uninterrupted day – perfect for batting as the pitch typically stabilizes by this stage.
Hagley Oval’s historical data suggests 300-plus scores are achievable on Days 3 and 4 once the early greenness fades and bounce becomes more predictable.
Day 4: Dry, warm and windy conditions set stage for big scores
December 5 remains dry with negligible rain (<10%) and temperatures ranging 16-24°C. Gusty northwest winds between 20-30 km/h may provide minor assistance to bowlers, but overall conditions strongly favour batters. Partial cloud cover near 50% should keep the pitch lively enough to prevent imbalance but allow set players to capitalise, especially during the third and fourth innings.
Day 5: Rain threat returns for potentially dramatic finish
The final day on December 6 sees a renewed rain risk between 30-50%, with temperatures dropping to 10-20°C. Forecasts warn of up to 15 mm of rainfall, which may disrupt the closing passages of the Test. If weather permits, both teams will push for a result – but early use of covers remains likely should morning showers develop.
