Twins right-hander Pablo López will have Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Earlier this week, it was the Twins revealed that he had tearing in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament. He took a few days to explore a second opinion but it seems there was no avoiding the worst-case scenario.
It’ll be the second Tommy John procedure for López. His first was more than a decade ago. He’ll miss the entire 2026 season and hope to be ready early in the 2027 campaign, which will be the final season of his four-year, $73.5MM contract with the Twins. López is being paid $21.75MM both this season and next.
The Twins acquired López and a pair of prospects from the Marlins in the Jan. 2023 trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. He’s been a rocksteady performer near the top of Minnesota’s rotation for the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.68 ERA with even more impressive rate stats (26.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 43.1 GB%). Metrics like SIERA (3.48) and FIP (3.44) feel he’s been a hair better than his already solid earned run average would indicate.
In 2025, López raced out of the gates with a 2.82 ERA and his typically strong rate stats through his first 11 starts (60 2/3 innings). A Grade 2 strain of his teres major suffered in early June wound up costing him about three months, however. López returned with three sharp starts in September, allowing four runs in 15 innings, before ending the season on the injured list due to a minor forearm strain.
The Twins said after the season that López could have pitched through the injury had the team been in the playoff hunt but opted to shut him down with their season already lost. He received a clean bill of health not long after and had a generally normal offseason. The UCL tear seemingly popped up during his first bullpen session this spring.
Although Minnesota tore the bullpen down last summer at the deadline and sold off several impending free agents (a total of 11 players), they opted not to completely rebuild this winter. After some early uncertainty about how they’d approach the offseason, the team’s sale of a minority stake to three new shareholders gave the front office the necessary space to make some modest additions. Victor Caratini, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers all signed as free agents, and the Twins opted not to trade López, rotationmate Joe Ryan, catcher Ryan Jeffers (a free agent next winter) or franchise center fielder Byron Buxton.
New executive chair Tom Pohlad has been vocal about his desire to compete and his belief that the roster has a better chance at doing so than those outside the organization think. The Twins made a late run at Framber Valdez and also jumped into the Freddy Peralta bidding, with both of those late-offseason overtures coming after the ownership situation had gained some clarity. Obviously, neither came to fruition, but it stands to reason based on those two efforts that the Twins could at least consider going outside the organization, where Lucas Giolito and old friend Zack Littell are among the notable veterans who’ve yet to sign a contract.
With López formally out for the year, it’ll almost certainly fall to fellow right-hander Joe Ryan to take the mound on Opening Day. Right-hander Bailey Ober will look to bounce back from a season that was torched by an awful June (after which he went on the injured list due to a hip injury). Simeon Woods Richardson is out of minor league options and logged a 4.04 ERA in 111 1/3 innings last year (including a flat 3.00 ERA over his final 14 starts). He should be all but assured a rotation spot as well.
Homegrown former top prospects Zebby Matthews and David Festa will join deadline pickups Taj Bradley and Mick Abel in competing for Opening Day rotation spots, while prospects like Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas and Andrew Morris could challenge for innings as the season wears on, depending on health and performance in Triple-A.
