The Mets paid a fairly significant prospect price to acquire ace Freddy Peralta from Milwaukee in January. A bargain $8MM salary was a big part of his trade value. The Mets surely have some interest in keeping the impending free agent in Queens at what would be significantly higher prices beyond this year.
Although Peralta has expressed openness to extension talks, he’s targeting the kind of contract which the Mets have mostly avoided under president of baseball operations David Stearns. Peralta told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic earlier this week that he was looking for a long-term deal. He was more specific on Friday, telling Jon Heyman of The New York Post he’s seeking “seven or eight years.”
It’d be surprising if the Mets go to that length, at least before Peralta hits the open market. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker (available to Front Office subscribers), the Mets haven’t signed a pitcher for more than three years since Stearns was hired in 2023.
Last winter’s three-year, $75MM deal with Sean Manaea is their only pitching contract beyond two seasons. They reportedly made a 12-year offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he was an ace coming over from Japan at age 25. It has been a similar setup on the position player side. They were willing to do essentially whatever it took to sign Juan Soto, but they’ve otherwise pursued short-term deals at huge annual rates with their free agent targets.
Stearns has traded for Peralta twice and signed him to a bargain early-career extension when he was running baseball operations in Milwaukee. He understandably loves the player and clearly appreciates what he brings to the clubhouse.
That said, Peralta would be a more typical high-end free agent than a nearly unique case like Soto or Yamamoto. He turns 30 in June, so the first year of an extension or free agent deal would be his age-31 season. He’s an excellent pitcher but is a clear notch below the likes of Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes as the best arms in MLB.
Last season’s fifth-place Cy Young finish was the first time in Peralta’s career that he appeared on ballots. He’s coming off a career-low 2.70 earned run average through 176 2/3 innings. He ranked 11th among starters (minimum 120 innings) with a 28.2% strikeout rate. Peralta hasn’t missed a start in three seasons and ranks 15th in innings pitched during that time.
There’s some recent precedent for a seven-plus year deal with that profile. Aaron Nola commanded seven years and $175MM from the Phillies at the same age in 2023. Nola was extremely durable but didn’t throw as hard as Peralta does and had started to struggle with the home run ball.
Dylan Cease pulled seven years and $210MM (albeit with deferrals dropping the actual value closer to $185MM) from the Blue Jays last offseason. Cease throws a little harder and misses a few more bats than Peralta does, but his start to start efficiency was lacking. Max Fried is the only pitcher in his 30s to sign for eight years within the past decade. He got to $218MM from the Yankees as a lefty with plus stuff who hadn’t allowed an ERA higher than 3.25 in any of the five seasons preceding free agency.
Peralta fits in that group on talent. The difference between his current situation and the aforementioned trio is that he’s still a year away from the open market. Walk year extensions for Luis Castillo and José Berríos landed south of $150MM. Peralta presumably isn’t looking for an annual value in the low $20MM range simply to stretch the length of the contract.
Rosenthal reported on Monday that the sides had yet to seriously broach an extension. They’ll likely have those conversations within the three weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. Whether there’s a long-term deal in place or not, Peralta will make his team debut on Opening Day. Skipper Carlos Mendoza made that unsurprising announcement last week. They’ll host the Pirates (who’ll surely turn the ball to Skenes) in a marquee pitching matchup.
