The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Chicago Bears on Black Friday. The Eagles are coming off one of the worst blown leads of the NFL season, but they still own an 8-3 record. The Bears have found a shocking amount of success, posting the same 8-3 record.
The Eagles have found drastically more success at home this season. They’re averaging .315 points per play this year, and that number jumps to .418 at home. They’re giving up 25.6 points per game in those contests.
Philadelphia is also better defensively at home. They’re allowing only .318 points per play and just 19.2 points per game in those matchups.
Although I do like the Eagles at home, the Bears on the road is the bigger edge. As is the case with most teams led by a young quarterback, Chicago has been significantly better at home throughout the 2025 season.
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The Bears are averaging a healthy .436 points per play in Chicago this season, ranking seventh in the NFL. That number drops to .384 on the road, which bumps them out of the top 10.
Unsurprisingly, Chicago’s defense is also worse away from home. They rank 14th in points allowed per play at home (.334). That number balloons to a league-high .543 on the road this season.
This feels like the perfect opportunity to sell high on Chicago while buying low on Philadelphia. I don’t expect the Bears to be at the top of the NFC North by season’s end, and I do expect the Eagles to finish with one of the NFL’s best records.
Granted, I’m not the highest person in the world on Philadelphia—specifically with their questionable decision-making at head coach. This is still a spot where I can confidently avoid the Bears on the road.
Chicago is one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, and I don’t buy into them. Eventually, they’re going to regress from these ridiculous wins, and this is a situation where we wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears were a four-win team.
Overall, I believe we’re looking at one playoff team here with genuine Super Bowl aspirations. They’re in a get-right spot against a team with a record that oversells who they actually are. It’s also important to note that Chicago is dealing with a plethora of injuries, making this task even more difficult.
Where to Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -7 spread | +100 at ESPN Bet
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 20-26
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