The Pirates traded back-end starter Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox tonight, getting rookie outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia back as part of a five-player deal. Garcia immediately becomes the favorite to start the season in left field, but the Bucs undoubtedly have more lineup acquisitions on the way.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Pirates remain open to offers on their starters — obviously excepting Paul Skenes, whom general manager Ben Cherington has already declared will not be moved. That wouldn’t be for prospects, as the goal would be to swap pitching for offense. Cherington and his front office have made a few trades of that type over the past year and a half. In addition to the Oviedo/Garcia deal, they swapped Quinn Priester for Nick Yorke at the 2024 deadline and flipped Luis Ortiz and a pair of pitching prospects for Spencer Horwitz last winter. The Horwitz deal looks the far better of the previous two trades.
It seems safe to assume the Pirates aren’t trading Jared Jones, a potential top-of-the-rotation arm who is midway through rehabbing elbow surgery. Bubba Chandler is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. It’d be almost as surprising to see him moved. Even with Oviedo headed to Boston, the Bucs have a few intriguing possibilities.
Mitch Keller is the most straightforward trade candidate. He has been in trade rumors for years, though that was generally about Pittsburgh being in a rebuild. It’s a different situation now that the goal is to build a playoff-caliber lineup for next season. Keller is a solid mid-rotation starter whose production has tailed off in the second half of three consecutive years. He has been a durable source of innings with a low-4.00s ERA overall. He attacks the strike zone and has solid velocity but doesn’t miss many bats. At age 30, it’s unlikely he’ll jump from a #3/4 starter to become an ace.
Keller is signed for three seasons. He’ll make $16.5MM next season, following by respective $18MM and $20MM salaries. He’s the highest-paid player on the team, but that doesn’t appear to be as big an issue this offseason as it might normally be. The Pirates are reportedly open to being more aggressive in adding mid-tier free agent hitters. They’d obviously have more payroll space if they move Keller, but the contract isn’t forcing him out the door.
There should be some surplus value. Keller would probably top three years and $54.5MM if he were a free agent. It’s not a huge bargain, though, as his open market value might be in the $65-75MM range. The Pirates would be more likely to get an established hitter with multiple years of control if they were willing to trade one of their younger arms. Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows would be particularly valuable.
Ashcraft thrived in a multi-inning relief role as a rookie. The 26-year-old righty struck out 24.3% of batters faced while pitching to a 2.71 ERA across 69 2/3 innings. He sat around 97 MPH with his fastballs while throwing a pair of power breaking pitches. He’s likely to get a rotation spot next season and has six years of club control.
Burrows, also 26, has yet to reach one full year of service either. He sits around 95 MPH with his fastball and has a four-pitch mix. Burrows punched out 24.1% of opponents while working to a 3.94 earned run average through 96 frames. He held a rotation spot from late May through the end of the season.
Pittsburgh would get no shortage of interest in Burrows and Ashcraft. The Diamondbacks (Jordan Lawlar), Angels (Christian Moore), Giants (Bryce Eldridge) and Orioles (Dylan Beavers, Coby Mayo) are all in the market for starting pitching and have highly-touted hitting prospects who have yet to establish themselves in MLB.
The pitching pipeline extends even further. Hunter Barco, Antwone Kelly, Wilber Dotel and Thomas Harrington are all on the 40-man roster. The first three all rank among the organization’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America. Harrington might be more of a depth arm, but all four pitchers should have fans in other clubs’ scouting departments. The Pirates added another high-octane arm to the system last summer, drafting high school righty Seth Hernandez sixth overall. He’s years away and comes with the standard risks for any teenage pitcher but offers another potential impact starter in the future.
