Public support for Democrats and Republicans has hardened in recent months, leaving an increasingly narrow sliver of undecided voters.
SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
The Department of Homeland Security has been without funding for more than 40 days now, and that’s caused TSA agents to work without pay or to quit. Although the president signed a memo today to pay TSA officers, long waits at airports across the country continue. It seemed like Congress might’ve found a way to fund the agency without money for immigration enforcement that Democrats have refused to support, but then it all fell apart.
President Trump signed a memo earlier today to pay TSA officers, as I mentioned. So as the shutdown drags on, we brought in NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro to take a look at how the public is responding. Hey, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey. Great to be with you, Scott.
DETROW: So Congress back to the drawing board on DHS funding. What are the politics of all of this?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, sometimes it’s not always left/right. That’s the problem, right? I mean, in this case, there are a lot of different variables, including one that’s derailed Senate compromise legislation in the past, and that’s the hardest-right faction of the House. It had problems not – with not funding ICE and Border Patrol in this legislation and believe that the politics are now on their side on this.
DETROW: Two observers who aren’t in their caucus, though – is that fair to say? Are the politics on their side?
MONTANARO: Yeah. It’s not clear at all, really. I mean, polling hasn’t shown either side with a real advantage through this process, but rejecting the Senate deal – which was brokered by Senate Republicans – could change that. I mean, people have been saying that they think Trump’s immigration enforcement tactics were going too far, especially after the killing of two American citizens in Minnesota earlier this year. That’s why Democrats pushed for concrete reforms.
And the longer it gets away from what was happening in Minnesota, the more conservatives feel like they may get the upper hand. I mean, that’s a page from a playbook we’ve seen before, prominently used by the NRA – the National Rifle Association – in the wake of mass shootings and saying that – you know, don’t do anything now, wait until things cool down. The further away things get from the crisis – the moment of crisis, the less likely there is to be urgent public pressure to get something done.
DETROW: So is there public pressure now to get a broader deal, or is the choice to ditch the Senate plan a risk?
MONTANARO: It’s a real gamble. I mean, there is tons of public pressure to get a deal because of long lines at airports that people are either experiencing themselves or seeing on TV or social media. TSA agents and people traveling are really caught in the middle of all of this. You know, people, for the most part, want to see normal. And that’s something that we’ve – we haven’t had in this country for a long time for a lot of people. It’s been one headline-grabbing thing after another, lack of compromise, outrage, chaos. And that’s really led to a corrosive antipathy toward everything in Washington and politics in general.
DETROW: Given that, people not liking chaos, what are you thinking about what we’re seeing play out in Washington right now and whether that’s reshaping the calculus for anybody around the midterms?
MONTANARO: Yeah. On the surface, you know, it looks like the polling is remarkably static and has been in the Trump era for a decade. There’s been a real hardening on both sides, and it goes beyond this standoff on DHS funding. I mean, look at Iran, for example. Despite some MAGA influencers coming out against the war, a CBS poll recently showed that 92% of those who identify as MAGA approve of the U.S. military action, compared to just 70% of Republicans who don’t identify that way. One place we are seeing movement is with independents and Latinos who have really, you know, slid away from Trump and Republicans in the past year.
DETROW: Yeah. We’re in one of those stretches right now where I think something happened four months ago, and it turned out it happened two days ago, you know, which happens a lot. I’m curious, like, what is breaking through right now?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, you’re right. It’s been a lot of whiplash. Is it ICE’s tactics that’ll dominate in this election? Is it Maduro being toppled in Venezuela? Now is it the war in Iran? But really, it’s the economy, and prices are the thing that continue to stand out. There was a Fox News poll out this week that showed that 46% say that they feel like they’re falling behind financially. Only 11% say that they’re getting ahead. When that happens, you know, it’s a big problem for the party that’s in power, and that lands on the doorstep of the president as well.
DETROW: NPR’s Domenico Montanaro, good to talk to you.
MONTANARO: Yeah. You too.
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