With Florida being upset by Iowa, we are down to three one seeds in March Madness. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona have been the three best teams in the country all year long, and it’s no surprise we’re seeing them in the Sweet 16.
One seeds have won the tournament 65% of the time in the 64-team era, and they’ve also won it in 8 out of the last 10 seasons.
It’s a pretty good chance that a one seed will win once again, so here’s how I’d power rank the remaining one seeds.
#1 Arizona +400
I liked Arizona before the tournament started, and nothing that’s happened since has made me lose faith. They had a tough second-round matchup against Utah State and were in control most of the game. The Aggies did pull within 4 in the second half, but Arizona recovered to win by double digits.
They probably have the toughest Sweet 16 matchup among all the one seeds, but also the easiest potential Elite 8 game. Arkansas probably shouldn’t be a four seed, and they’ve been playing some great basketball under Coach Calipari recently, but they’ve struggled with big teams all year long. I like Arizona keeping Darius Acuff Jr. in check and think they would dominate either Purdue or Texas in the Elite 8.
Arizona can beat you in so many different ways. They have an experienced lead guard in Jaden Bradley, superstar freshmen in Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, and great size in the middle with Motiejus Kriva. Getting Arizona at +400 still feels like very solid value.
#2 Michigan +290
Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) reacts being called a personal foul against him during the first half of Big Ten Tournament final against Purdue at United Center in Chicago on Sunday, March 15, 2026. Michigan had the best draw among the one seeds, and that still seems to be the case after two rounds of the tournament. The Wolverines looked human for the first time all season in the Big 10 tournament, but they’ve shaken that rust in the first two rounds of March Madness.
They’ve got an interesting Sweet 16 matchup with Alabama. The Tide have looked great in the first two rounds of the tournament, but they can be an incredibly streaky team. Another thing going against Bama is that Michigan will want to run with them. Alabama plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, but Michigan isn’t too far behind at 22nd.
Most importantly for Michigan, who on Alabama can slow down Yaxel Lendeborg? The big man duo of Lendeborg and Aday Mara is a matchup nightmare on both ends of the floor for every team in the tournament, not named Arizona, and I think they expose every team in their region. The only reason I have them below Arizona is that +290 isn’t enough juice, and despite matching up well with Iowa State in a potential Elite 8 matchup, the Cyclones have enough shooting to pull off the upset.
#3 Duke +420
Duke Blue Devils guard Cayden Boozer (2) celebrates after scoring Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Siena Saints at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. Duke Blue Devils won 71-65. Arizona and Michigan are my 1A and 1B teams in the tournament, and Duke is currently a distant third. They simply haven’t looked like a national title threat yet in the tournament, and I’m just not sure they will be able to at any point.
They’ve been bitten by the injury bug with Caleb Foster on the sidelines for the foreseeable future, and Patrick Ngongba was seen back in a boot, leaving the gym in his return against TCU last Saturday.
Duke also still has a massive gauntlet in front of them. St. John’s is a gritty team to play, and their full-court pressure could cause massive concerns for a team missing their starting guard in Foster.
If they can even make it through that game, they’ll be greeted with two great programs in Michigan State or UCONN. It’s pretty crazy that Scheyer is probably the worst remaining coach in his region. That won’t happen to a guy who’s found this much success in his short tenure leading the Blue Devils.
