Luxury watch devotees can now bet on where the price of their beloved Rolex is headed or which model Patek Philippe will discontinue.
Kalshi Inc. is working with watch marketplace Bezel to create so-called event contracts tied to high-end watches as part of a push to expand betting on collectibles, according to executives at the companies.
It’s the latest in a string of prediction products rolled out for goods such as sneakers and items like Labubus and Pokémon cards. The contracts allow users to trade on outcomes such as whether an item will surpass a price threshold or predict whether a brand will launch a new model.
Watches have “been viewed as a financial market for a really long period of time, but it’s also passion-driven, and a lot of folks are just collecting because they love having something on their wrist,” Quaid Walker, chief executive officer and co-founder of Bezel, said in an interview.
Prediction markets and platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted interest and financial backing from large financial institutions. Kalshi, which has been valued at $11 billion, recently struck a deal with Tradeweb Markets Inc. to stream its pricing and data to investment firms.
Their fast growth isn’t without challenges. Regulators in several US states have challenged the business, arguing their sports contracts are constitute gambling instead of a derivatives market. There are also concerns around market manipulation, insider trading and other controversies. This weekend, as US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran, traders rushed to cash in.
On Polymarket, contracts tied to the timing of US strikes had drawn more than $529 million in volume and faced immediate questions about whether people with inside information had profited from the conflict.
Bezel built its own mathematical tool to price watches for buyers and sellers based on real-time sales data. That pricing model will be integrated into Kalshi’s platform as part of the event contracts, the companies said.
Collecting luxury watches, some of which fetch prices in the millions of dollars, has too high a bar to entry for many, Walker said, adding that the event contracts can offer a way for enthusiasts to get involved for less. It “broadens the watch market and brings more folks into the hobby,” he said.
Kalshi, founded in 2018 by two graduates of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, allows users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of many real-world events, including sports and political events. The business is licensed and supervised by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
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