President Claudia Sheinbaum has an approval rating above 70% at the end of her first year in office, according to the results of two polls.
Sheinbaum, who was sworn in as Mexico’s first female president on Oct. 1, 2024, is thus significantly more popular than her five most recent predecessors were at the completion of their first year as president.
The newspaper El Financiero polled 1,000 Mexican adults by telephone in September, 73% of whom said they approved of Sheinbaum’s work as president.
A much larger online poll of more than 62,000 people conducted by Mitofsky for the newspaper El Economista this month detected a slightly lower 71.6% approval rating for the president.
Both polls found that close to three in ten people disapproved of Sheinbaum’s performance as president.
Women more likely to support Sheinbaum than men
The Mitofsky/El Economista poll found that 74.1% of women supported Sheinbaum, whereas 69% of men approved of the president’s performance.
The poll also found that young Mexicans were more likely to support the president than older people. Support for Sheinbaum among people aged 18-29 was 73% compared to 69.8% among those aged 30-49 and 72.6% among Mexicans aged 50 and above.
Among people with university qualifications, support for the president was 60.3% whereas 74.6% of Mexicans with lower levels of educational attainment approved of Sheinbaum’s performance.
Support for Sheinbaum highest among housewives, lowest among businesspeople
The Mitofsky/El Economista poll found that 81.1% of housewives supported the president, the highest percentage among 12 different “occupation” categories.
Three other cohorts of people — informal sector workers, retirees and farmers — expressed support for Sheinbaum in higher numbers than the national average of 71.6%.
The president’s approval rating was below 60% among three cohorts of people: businesspeople (54.8%), professionals (56%) and unemployed people (59.9%).
Among people who benefit from government welfare programs, support for the president was 80.2%.
Sheinbaum’s popularity is highest in Tamaulipas, lowest in Jalisco
Sheinbaum’s approval rating was above 80% in seven states, according to the results of the Mitofsky/El Economista poll.
Those states were Tamaulipas (83.4%); Hidalgo (82.6%); Tabasco (81.8%); Campeche (81.6%); Oaxaca (81.1%); Tlaxcala (80.9%); and Durango (80.6%).
Sheinbaum’s approval rating was below 60% in three states: Jalisco (55.5%); Sinaloa (56.2%); and Zacatecas (57.5%).
Two of the three states where support for Sheinbaum is lowest — Sinaloa and Zacatecas — are governed by Morena, the national party of government. Sinaloa has been plagued by security problems over the past year, but homicides in Zacatecas have declined during the Sheinbaum administration.
Strong majority sees Sheinbaum as an honest president with good leadership skills
El Financiero asked its poll respondents to rate Sheinbaum on three personal attributes: honesty, leadership and ability to deliver results.
Sixty-four per cent of respondents rated the president highly for her honesty (good or very good), while 66% praised her leadership. Only 54% of those polled said that Sheinbaum’s ability to deliver results was good or very good, down from 78% in February.
Strong support for welfare programs, considerable criticism of efforts to combat crime
Exactly three-quarters of respondents to the El Financiero poll described the social support the federal government provides to citizens as good or very good. That support comes via welfare programs, including employment, pension and scholarship schemes.
A majority of those polled (53%) also said that the government is doing a good or very good job managing the economy.
With regard to the fight against organized crime, 75% of respondents described the Sheinbaum administration’s performance as bad or very bad, while 74% were critical of its efforts to combat corruption.
Asked to rate the government’s performance in the area of public security, 53% of those polled said bad or very bad, even as homicide numbers trend down.
Mexicans optimistic that government will protect migrants, but pessimistic about health care
A strong majority of respondents to the Mitofsky/El Economista poll (64.3%) said they believed that the Sheinbaum administration would do “a lot” or “quite a lot” for Mexicans who live in the United States, where the Trump administration is carrying out an immigration crackdown.
However, only 29.4% of those polled said they believed that the government would do a lot or quite a lot to improve health care in Mexico.
Sheinbaum outlines 5 new government initiatives to improve Mexicans’ health
More than 60% of respondents said they believed the government would do a lot to “increase the international prestige of Mexico” and “improve the situation of people in the countryside.”
But only 39.8% of those polled expressed confidence that the Sheinbaum administration would do a lot to “protect the rights of all citizens,” while 46% said they believed it would do a lot to reduce corruption.
Mexico’s biggest problem is insecurity
Asked to identify Mexico’s “main problem,” 52% of respondents to the El Financiero poll cited public insecurity.
Around one in five people (21%) mentioned the economy and unemployment, while 19% cited corruption.
Similarly, 55% of respondents to the Mitofsky/El Economista poll cited insecurity as their “main concern.”
About one in six respondents to that poll (16.2%) said that health care was their primary concern while 11.7% cited the economy.
Slim majority supports proposed tariffs on China
Among the 1,000 respondents to the El Financiero poll, 51% expressed support for Sheinbaum’s proposal to impose new tariffs on a wide range of goods from China and other countries with which Mexico doesn’t have trade agreements.
The president submitted her tariff plan to Congress earlier this month.
Sheinbaum vs. AMLO, Peña Nieto and Calderón
According to Mitofsky’s polling, Sheinbaum’s approval rating has increased 10.1 points compared to her first month in office.
By contrast, the approval ratings of former presidents Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Enrique Peña Nieto, Felipe Calderón and Vicente Fox all declined in the period between their first month in office and the one-year mark of their presidencies.
Among the six most recent ex-presidents, only Ernesto Zedillo (1994-2000) and Carlos Salinas (1988-94) had improved their standing by the one-year mark.
Sheinbaum’s approval rating of 71.6%, according to the Mitofsky/El Economista poll, is 13 points higher than AMLO’s approval rating when he reached the end of his first year in office in December 2019. She is almost 22 points ahead of where Peña Nieto was at the same stage of his presidency, more than 13 points ahead of Calderón, over 12 points ahead of Fox and more than 28 points ahead of Zedillo.
Among the six most recent previous presidents, Salinas was the only leader who had a similarly high approval rating at the end of his first year in office. His approval rating at that point was 69.2%, according to Mitofsky. Salinas was president at a time when the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, continued to rule Mexico as an effective one-party state.
With reports from El Financiero and El Economista
