As the league phase of the Champions League comes to a close with all 36 teams in action simultaneously, here is the situation for all five La Liga sides. The top eight qualify automatically for the Round of 16, while places 9th to 24th will face off in the play-off round.
Real Madrid: 3rd, 15 points, Benfica (A)
Real Madrid know a win will put them at least third in the top eight, and secure a bye to the Round of 16. Three points would potentially move Los Blancos into second if Bayern Munich lose, while Liverpool are unlikely to overhaul the five-goal difference to drop them to fourth. Should Los Blancos lose or draw, it opens the door to nine teams to potentially leapfrog them, although their +11 goal difference means a draw is unlikely to be disastrous.
Alvaro Arbeloa will be keen to see his side in the top four though, securing home second legs at the Bernabeu until at least the semi-finals. Benfica (29th) must win to keep their slim hopes of qualification alive, relying on other results ahead of them.
Barcelona: 9th, 13 points, Copenhagen (H)
The chances are only a win will be sufficient for Barcelona to finish in the top 8. Barcelona are level on 13 points with eight other teams, and must better or match the results of five sides below them, knowing that one of Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle United will drop points against each other. They could still overtake Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool or Real Madrid with three points too, although those sides would have to lose.
🚨 OFFICIAL: The squad. [@FCBarcelona] pic.twitter.com/9LPbqieHDJ
— barcacentre (@barcacentre) January 28, 2026
Should they draw, the chances are the Blaugrana fall into the play-off round. They would be relying on 8 sides to drop points around them to qualify for the Round of 16, while a loss would be decisive in the wrong sense. They are qualified for the play-off round. Copenhagen (26th), likely need a win in order to qualify for the play-off round.
Atletico Madrid: 12th, 13 points, Bodo/Glimt (H)
Atletico Madrid have a roughly 50-50 chance of making it into the top 8 with a win. They must take three points and hope four sides above them drop points, although at least one of PSG and Newcastle are guaranteed to do so. Los Colchoneros have the second-lowest goal difference (+3) of any of the eight sides on 13 points, and thus must win comfortably to dramatically increase their chances of qualification.
Convocatoria. 🔴⚪ pic.twitter.com/6RbTLaQznc
— Atlético de Madrid (@Atleti) January 28, 2026
If they draw, Atletico will require five sides above them to lose, and are at risk of being overtaken by the five sides below them. A loss means they will enter the play-off round, which they are already qualified for. Their highest possible place is 3rd, their lowest possible is 18th. Bodo/Glimt (28th) must win in order to have hope of qualification for the play-off round.
Six places in the top eight up for grabs 🤯#UCL pic.twitter.com/5ddpSxLhGA
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 28, 2026
Athletic Club: 23rd, 8 points, Sporting CP (H)
Athletic Club know that they likely need a win to qualify for the play-off round, but even with that, need their (-4) goal difference to better two of the five teams also on eight points currently. Their chances of qualification with victory are high, and their highest possible spot is 16th, while their lowest is 32nd. They will be without Nico Williams, who has been ruled out through injury.
A draw likely sees Los Leones eliminated, as it would open the door for four teams to overtake them with a draw, and nine teams to overtake them with a win. A loss is almost guaranteed elimination, as just two of Olympiakos, Napoli, Copenhagen and Club Brugge would need a point to overtake them. Sporting CP (10th) know a win gives them a strong chance of finishing in the top 8, while a draw is unlikely to be good enough. They are already qualified for the play-off round.
Villarreal: 35th, 1 point, Bayer Leverkusen (A)
The Yellow Submarine are the only Spanish side unable to qualify, with a single point from their seven matches. Villarreal travel to Leverkusen, knowing their highest finishing position is 33rd, and that if they lose or draw, Kairat Almaty can sink them to the bottom with a better result. Leverkusen (20th) are fighting for their spot in the play-off round, and need a win to guarantee their spot. A draw could be good enough, as could a loss, but it opens the door to teams all the way down to 32nd to usurp them if they do not take any points.
