MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — U.S.-backed airstrikes and recently expanded ground operations have shifted momentum in Somalia ‘s long-running war against al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab militant group, the government says, touting successes in the fight such as efforts to reclaim territory from the extremists and the targeting of the group’s leadership and bomb-making network.
The turn comes at a pivotal moment: African Union peacekeeping forces are gradually drawing down and Somalia is assuming greater responsibility for its own security, nearly two decades after al-Shabab emerged as a dominant insurgent force.
Here is a look at what has changed and what remains uncertain in the conflict.
How Somalia got here
Al-Shabab emerged in the mid-2000s as the armed wing of the now outlawed Islamic Courts Union coalition before aligning itself with al-Qaida. At its peak, it controlled much of southern and central Somalia, including parts of Mogadishu, the country’s capital.
African Union troops pushed al-Shabab out of Mogadishu in 2011, but the group adapted, reverting to guerrilla warfare, suicide bombings, and targeted assassinations. It continues to raise millions of dollars annually through taxation and extortion, according to U.N. monitors.
The United States has carried out airstrikes in Somalia for more than a decade. In 2020, during his first term in office, President Donald Trump ordered most U.S. troops withdrawn. In 2022, President Joe Biden approved the redeployment of U.S. forces to Somalia, restoring a more sustained advisory and counterterrorism presence.
Retaking territory from al-Shabab
Authorities say Somali troops have retaken areas in the regions of Lower Shabelle, Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle and parts of Jubbaland that had been under the militants’ control for years.
Omar Ali Abdi, Somalia’s state minister for defense, told The Associated Press that locations in Lower Shabelle, including Jilib Marka, Gendershe, and Dhanaane, which had long served as al-Shabab strongholds, are now in military hands.
The minister also cited gains in the central Hiiraan region, including Taydaan and Yasooman, and operations near Masjid Ali Gaduud in Middle Shabelle. In the Kudhaa area of Jubbaland, he said joint operations involving regional Darawiish forces and Somalia’s U.S.-trained Danab special forces have killed dozens of militants and seized vehicles.
Al-Shabab has not confirmed the reported losses. Access to many contested areas is restricted, making independent verification difficult.
The role played by the US
The U.S carries out airstrikes across areas under U.S. Africa Command, or AFRICOM, targeting al-Shabab leaders, training sites and weapons facilities in coordination with Somalia’s federal government.
Abdi, the state minister, said recent air operations destroyed facilities used to manufacture improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, and neutralized explosive-laden vehicles before they could be deployed. He said Somali intelligence services provide verified targeting information.
AFRICOM says it conducts precision strikes and assesses the risk of civilian harm before carrying them out. In past years, U.S. strikes in Somalia have drawn criticism from rights groups over civilian casualties. AFRICOM has acknowledged some cases and says it investigates allegations.
How airpower has changed the battlefield
Mogadishu-based security analyst Abdullahi Ahmed Ali said the expansion of aerial surveillance and strike capability altered what had previously been a more evenly matched fight.
In earlier phases, he said, both government forces and al-Shabab possessed similar types of ground weapons. What the government lacked was sustained airpower and persistent surveillance.
Expanded drone coverage has allowed forces to identify al-Shabab’s underground hideouts and supply routes that were previously difficult to reach, he said. Once these locations were targeted from the air, it was easier for the government troops to advance into those areas.
Somali officials say drones now provide early warning of militant movements near Mogadishu, where al-Shabab continues to carry out bombings despite tightened security.
The timing of the renewed offensive is also significant as it coincides with the transition from African Union troops — known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia — that are gradually reducing their footprint in the country as Somali forces assume greater control.
Analysts say that makes air support and intelligence coordination with international partners more critical.
At the same time, Somalia faces overlapping pressures, including climate-related drought, political tensions between federal and regional authorities, and funding shortfalls affecting security and humanitarian operations.
Some security experts caution that territorial gains from al-Shabab must be consolidated through governance and services. In previous offensives, al-Shabab managed to move back into areas after government forces withdrew or failed to maintain a presence.
Next steps in a tough fight
Somali authorities say thousands of al-Shabab fighters have been killed since the campaign intensified, including dozens in recent operations in the coastal town of Kudhaa and elsewhere. Those figures could not be independently verified.
Experts warn that territorial control in Somalia remains fluid, particularly in rural regions. While government forces appear to have expanded their presence in several areas, al-Shabab is still able to reach vast parts of central and southern Somalia.
Somali officials say operations will continue in coordination with international partners, combining ground offensives, intelligence gathering, and reconstruction efforts in retaken towns.
According to Abdi, the government plans to rebuild homes and deliver aid in newly captured areas to prevent al-Shabab from reestablishing control. Still, despite the reported government gains, al-Shabab remains one of Africa’s most resilient militant groups and a top threat.
That means it will now be up to the government to translate gains on the ground into lasting stability. And that will depend on Somalia’s ability to secure and govern territory as international peacekeeping forces scale back their role.
Omar Faruk, The Associated Press
