BUTTE, Mont. – It’s long been an adage in Montana politics that if you’re running for office, you’d better have a float in the Butte St. Paddy’s Day Parade, which draws thousands to the mining city’s historic uptown, soaking up the nostalgia – and the Guiness.
Here, you’re just steps from the towering old mining headframes and the one mile long and half mile wide Berkeley Pit. Now shuttered, it was once one of the world’s largest copper deposits.
Larry Carden, in a Notre Dame sweatshirt, never misses the parade.
“You’ll see a lot more boos for the Republicans than you will the Democrats, I can guarantee you that,” he says.
That’s a nod to Butte’s long history of Democratic politics and a strong labor movement going back to around 1900, when the “Copper King” mine owners ruled Montana business and media, and bribed their way into political office. Today, Carden, who’s retired, is worried that the mega rich are again influencing politics here, and how expensive life is in his home state.
“Between health care and gas and food, and you go to the store the other day, there’s rib steaks $19.99 a pound, you know,” Carden says.
This year’s parade followed an unusually turbulent few days in Montana’s political scene – half of its congressional delegation abruptly retired. Despite the state’s recent tilt from purple to deep red, the races for their seats could be more in play now because of the way Senator Steve Daines and Congressman Ryan Zinke, both Republicans, gave up them up and chose their successors. In Daines’ case, he withdrew his candidacy just minutes before the filing deadline.
Like a lot of people in Butte, Carden is a longtime Democrat. But he says he’s grown disillusioned with party politics.
“I would rather everything be independent where there is no party designation and then you have to pay more attention to who the person actually is,” Carden says.
New Candidate opts to go independent
That’s exactly what Seth Bodnar, a former Green Beret running for U.S. Senate, is trying to capitalize on. He joined other candidates mixed in with Irish dancing troupes and fire department floats, as he walked the parade route along Park Street shaking the occasional hand and tossing candy.
In an interview with NPR earlier in Missoula, Bodnar, who recently resigned his post as University of Montana president, pitched what he says would be his bi-partisan appeal.
“I’m an independent,” Bondar says. “When I raised my right hand at the age of 18 and I swore an oath to this Constitution when I joined the military, not to a political party.”.
Person over party used to be the playbook in Montana, which some call just one long Main Street. It’s how former Senator Jon Tester used to win despite being a Democrat as the state got redder.
The day after Bodnar formally announced he was gathering signatures to get on the ballot, his long shot bid got taken a lot more seriously.
Sen. Steve Daines, who was elected to the Senate in 2014, sent shockwaves through the state’s political scene when he announced in a video posted to X that he’d decided not to seek reelection.
“I’m also very thankful to have served alongside President Trump and my colleagues in the Senate,” Daines said in the video. “Together we built a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, we delivered the largest tax cut in U.S. history, we unleashed American energy dominance and secured our southern border.”
Daines’ late hour withdrawal presumably clears the way for his chosen successor, Kurt Alme, the U.S. Attorney for Montana until he declared his candidacy for Daines’ seat. Daines later said withdrawing earlier could have enticed a prominent Democrat like Tester to enter the race.
Independent Seth Bodnar says it reminds him of the Montana of old.
“We have direct election of senators in the United States in part because of political corruption in this state 125 years ago, Copper Kings trying to buy U.S. Senate seats,” Bodnar says. “That didn’t work back then and it’s not going to work right now.”
But Democrats say Bodnar’s entry as an independent will just split the liberal vote.
The GOP base is angry too
“Montanans are getting very indignant about what they see as out and out dishonesty,” says Roger Koopman, a former Republican legislator and Montana Public Service commissioner from Bozeman.
Koopman says the party establishment’s backroom dealing is a gift to Democrats and especially Seth Bodnar, who he says is a liberal running as an independent.
“They’re going to say, ‘hey, I’m over these Republicans playing games with me, you can’t do that and expect me to vote for you, I’m not going to vote Democrat, but here’s this guy out here who says he’s independent, let me give him a try,'” Koopman says.
Alme has been keeping a low profile. Political pundits say that might be by design. A campaign spokesperson sent NPR this statement: “Anyone could run for this seat. Kurt is running on his record as the Trump-endorsed candidate of common sense who knows how to be tough on violent crime, dismantle drug cartels, and deliver historic tax relief. Voters will decide, and Kurt is confident in his work serving Montana and helping President Trump put America First.”
At Montana State University, political science department chair Eric Austin says he expects party tensions will cool and Republicans will rally around their nominee by November.
“I think in part that speaks to the changes in the electorate in the state,” Austin says. “As the state has become more red, people have more strongly affiliated themselves with the Republican Party and less as independents.”
However, Austin says the midterms will be a referendum on President Trump and there’s growing economic anxiety in Montana. Farmers are getting hurt by Trump’s tariffs. His Iran War has sent fertilizer prices soaring, raised interest rates and the cost of gas.
Back in Butte, at the St. Paddy’s Day parade, longtime Democratic activist Evan Barrett says there’s a resurgence in populist resentment in Montana.
“It’s almost like a repetition of the past,” says Barrett, a one time economic aide to former Governor Brian Schweitzer.
Ducking into an old storefront to take a break from the spectacle of the parade, Barrett told NPR there’s a feeling in the electorate that a lot of outside money is coming into influence politics, but not staying in Montana and being invested into things like schools.
“So this is a really wild and different year,” Barrett says. “Anybody that tells you they know what’s gonna happen, well, be a bit skeptical.”
President Trump has endorsed last minute Senate candidate Kurt Alme but it’s not clear what kind of effect that might have on voters in November.
