UFC Mexico City Betting Predictions: Moreno vs Kavanagh Fight Night Picks

For the eighth time in the promotion’s history, the UFC Octagon lands in Mexico City, as this weekend’s edition of UFC Fight Night – UFC Mexico City – takes place at Arena CDMX in Mexico’s national capital.

The UFC has stopped in the city once each of the last few years. Last time saw a card in which Brandon Moreno nearly swept the scorecards against Steve Erceg in the main event. There had been heavy rumors about the card not taking place in Mexico City this week due to the ever-evolving violent situation in the country; however, it’s all steam ahead for the UFC.

Moreno, the Mexican-born former two-time UFC flyweight champion, will be in the main event of this edition of UFC Mexico City again, as he takes on Lone’er Kavanagh. Moreno was originally booked to face Asu Almabayev, but Kavanagh stepped in after Almabayev suffered a hand injury.

Moreno is 2-3 since losing the title to Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 290, and he’ll look for a rebound from his TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira at UFC 323. Kavanagh, meanwhile, earned a UFC contract in 2024 after a knockout of An Tuan Ho on Dana White’s Contender Series. He scored decision wins in his first two bouts but suffered the first loss of his career against Charles Johnson at UFC Shanghai in August.

The co-main event will see Marlon “Chito” Vera look to snap his three-fight losing skid against David Martinez, who’s looking to continue winning ways and make it 3-0 in the UFC.

The rest of the main card will feature Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green, Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes, Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas, and Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco.

BRANDON MORENO VS. LONE’ER KAVANAGH

The question at this point is going to be if we’re witnessing the start of Brandon Moreno’s fall, but I really don’t think that is the case. And even if it is the start of something, I don’t think we see it in this fight. Kavanagh is stepping up on short notice, and I’m not going to hold the knockout loss to Charles Johnson against him (he’s KO’d Joshua Van). But he’s still early in his career, with not the strongest opponent history, and he’s taking on a world-class athlete and former world champion.

A fight like this in Moreno’s home country is the perfect rebound fight for him to show he’s still in the upper echelon of UFC flyweights and sets him back up for another big flyweight showdown later in the year. I don’t think Kavanagh has a weak chin, however, and Moreno is more dangerous with finishes on the ground than on the feet. I feel this one goes the distance in favor of “The Assassin Baby.”

BET: Moreno via decision (FanDuel: +185)

IMANOL RODRÍGUEZ VS. KEVIN BORJAS

The UFC has placed a lot of hype on Rodriguez as a potential star. Rodriguez was one of the key talents on season 33 of The Ultimate Fighter last year, losing to eventual flyweight winner Joseph Morales in a highly disputed decision. Rodriguez got another chance on Dana White’s Contender Series months later, scoring a first-round knockout of Roque Conceição.

Borjas doesn’t have the best track record on paper, but going the distance with the future (now current) UFC flyweight champion, Joshua Van, is a solid mark on his resume. Borjas has to fight a smart, strategic fight, however, or else he’ll be dropped quickly. Borjas can take this the distance, but I think Rodriguez’s power and skill net him a finish at some point during the bout.

BET: Rodriguez via KO/TKO/DQ (FanDuel: +120)

ALLIN PEREZ VS. MACY CHIASSON

Allin Perez is on a solid roll right now, winning five straight since dropping her UFC debut and coming in with a 12-2 record. Macy Chiasson, a former TUF winner, was building up a decent run herself, but she comes into this bout off two straight losses. 

There is a lot of momentum on Perez’s side, though neither woman has been the biggest finisher in the Octagon. And that’s what I’ll lean here.

BET: Perez via decision (FanDuel: -105)