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Two of the most closely watched contests this election night are primary races for a senate seat in Texas, currently held by Sen. John Cornyn.
Both the GOP and Democratic primaries are a potential litmus test for what direction base voters want their parties to go ahead of midterm elections this fall that will determine power in Congress.
Cornyn, a conservative stalwart, is hoping to fend off his two main challengers: Ken Paxton, the state’s often embattled attorney general, and Congressman Wesley Hunt.
Both challengers argue they are more aligned with President Trump and the current state of the Republican Party, which has continued a rightward shift in the past decade. Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002, has voted in favor of the president consistently while in office.
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To win outright, either candidate would have to secure more than 50% of the vote. Because all three candidates have garnered significant support in the polls, it is likely this race may be settled by a runoff in May.
If Cornyn were to lose this primary, the lack of an incumbent could create a unique opportunity for Democrats, who are hoping to flip enough Republican-held seats in the chamber to regain the majority.
The Democratic primary
Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, an Austin-area state lawmaker, are each hoping to secure the Democratic nomination.
Crockett announced her Senate bid after Republicans in Texas redrew the state’s congressional lines at Trump’s urging last year. She was among a handful of Democrats who were essentially drawn out of their districts, which had previously favored Democrats.
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There was a close eye on Crockett’s next move because she had garnered significant attention during her time in Congress as a lawmaker willing to verbally spar with her Republican colleagues.
Her decision to run shook up a primary race that Talarico was already in. Talarico was first elected to the Texas House in 2018 by flipping a seat that had been held by Republicans for years. Talarico, a seminarian, often invokes his faith – which he hopes reaches voters the Democratic party doesn’t often speak to.
At first the race between the two was cordial, but as Election Day got closer – and more money and attention poured in – the contest between the two Democrats soured. That is even though the two candidates agree on most issues and policies.
Where they split is over whose strategy is best equipped to turn Texas blue. While Talarico has sought to frame his campaign as one that can win over moderates and disenchanted Republicans, Crockett is betting she can win by turbocharging turnout among Democrats.
The election could also provide a glimpse as to whether Republicans are holding on to the gains they made with Latino voters, who are increasingly influential in Texas, during the 2024 election. Polling has shown that Latinos in the state, as well as nationwide, are beginning to back away from the Republican Party due to concerns over the economy and immigration enforcement.
