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    Home»Top Countries»Mexico»What does Trump’s Cuba threat mean for Mexico? Friday recap
    Mexico

    What does Trump’s Cuba threat mean for Mexico? Friday recap

    News DeskBy News DeskJanuary 31, 2026No Comments8 Mins Read
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    What does Trump's Cuba threat mean for Mexico? Friday recap
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    President Claudia Sheinbaum held her Friday morning press conference in Tijuana, the largest city in the state of Baja California.

    “Today we’re going to finally inaugurate the first stage of the viaduct,” she said at the start of the mañanera.

    Sheinbaum said that the second stage of the elevated roadway that will connect the Tijuana International Airport with the Playas de Tijuana borough of the northern border city will open next month.

    Homicides declined significantly in Baja California in 2025

    Early in the press conference, National Public Security System chief Marcela Figueroa reported that the average daily homicide rate in Baja California declined from 6.5 in 2024 to 4.7 last year, a reduction of 28%.

    The daily homicide rate in Baja California in 2025 was the lowest of the past eight years, she said.

    Still, Baja California ranked as Mexico’s third most violent state last year in terms of total homicides, with more than 1,700 according to data presented by Figueroa earlier this month.

    The National Public Security System director, Marcela Figueroa, said homicides in Baja California declined 28% last year. (Gabriel Monroy / Presidencia)

    San Felipe, located on the Gulf of California, ranked as Mexico’s fourth most violent municipality in 2025 based on its per capita homicide rate, according to crime data website elcri.men.

    Tecate ranked as the 43rd most violent municipality in the country, while Tijuana ranked 45th, according to elcri.men.

    Tijuana recorded more than 1,000 homicides last year, making it Mexico’s most violent city in terms of total murders.

    More than 5,000 people arrested in Baja California since Sheinbaum took office 

    Between Oct. 1, 2024 — the day Sheinbaum was sworn in — and Jan. 15, a total of 5,509 people were arrested in Baja California for allegedly committing “high-impact” crimes, such as murders and kidnappings, Security Minister Omar García Harfuch reported.

    He said that in the same period, authorities seized 1,253 firearms in the state, and confiscated more than 30 tonnes of narcotics, including 242 kilograms of fentanyl.

    García Harfuch also said that authorities have dismantled three methamphetamine labs in Baja California during the past 15 months. Since the national strategy against extortion was launched last July, 70 people have been arrested in the state for allegedly committing that crime, he said.

    Later in the press conference, García Harfuch said that “a cell of Los Chapitos” — a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel controlled by sons of imprisoned drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán — was to blame for an attack on two Sinaloa state deputies in Culiacán on Wednesday.

    Sheinbaum responds to US plan to impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba 

    A reporter asked the president about “this new threat from President Trump” to impose tariffs on countries that send oil to Cuba, which, according to a report by the Financial Times this week, has just “15 to 20 days” of oil left.

    The question came a day after Trump issued an executive order declaring a “national emergency” because, the U.S. president claimed, “the policies, practices, and actions of the Government of Cuba constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat … to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.”

    The executive order asserted that “Cuba welcomes transnational terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, creating a safe environment for these malign groups so that these transnational terrorist groups can build economic, cultural, and security ties throughout the region and attempt to destabilize the Western Hemisphere, including the United States.”

    In his executive order, Trump also said that he had determined that it was “necessary and appropriate to establish a tariff system,” under which “an additional ad valorem duty may be imposed on imports of goods that are products of a foreign country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba.”

    The executive order, the Associated Press reported, “would primarily put pressure on Mexico, a government that has acted as an oil lifeline for Cuba and has constantly voiced solidarity for the U.S. adversary even as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to build a strong relationship with Trump.”

    Mexico is the top oil supplier to Cuba, but state oil company Pemex canceled plans to send a shipment of crude to the Communist-run island this month. That move, Sheinbaum said earlier this week, was a “sovereign decision” rather than an act of succumbing to pressure from the United States, which is pressing for regime change in Cuba.

    On Friday morning, Sheinbaum thanked the reporter for his question about Trump’s executive order before proceeding to read out a prepared statement.

    “Number 1: Mexico unequivocally reaffirms [its commitment to] the principle of sovereignty and free self-determination of peoples, a fundamental pillar of our foreign policy and of international law,” she stated.

    “[Number] 2: The application of tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba could trigger a humanitarian crisis of great reach, directly affecting hospitals, food supply and other basic services for the Cuban people. [That is a] situation that must be avoided through respect for international law and dialogue between the parties,” said Sheinbaum, who has said that Mexico could mediate talks between the U.S. and Cuban governments.

    “[Number] 3: I have instructed the minister of foreign affairs to immediately establish contact with the U.S. Department of State in order to precisely know the reach of the order that was published [by Trump] yesterday, and also to let them know that we have to prevent a humanitarian crisis for the Cuban people,” the president continued.

    “And [number] 4: Mexico will seek different options … to help, in a humanitarian way, the people of Cuba, who are going through a difficult time.”

    Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is warning that Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on countries sending oil to Cuba could trigger a humanitarian crisis. She also said Mexico will continue to offer Cuba humanitarian support. pic.twitter.com/gbzxc6QKGq

    — Belly of the Beast (@bellybeastcuba) January 31, 2026

    Sheinbaum stressed that her government needs to find out “the reach” of Trump’s executive order because, “we don’t want to put our country at risk in terms of tariffs.”

    She also emphasized that “there are other ways to support” the people of Cuba apart from with oil.

    “The United States is sending food, it’s sending other support,” Sheinbaum noted.

    “Mexico will always show solidarity [with Cuba],” she added.

    Sheinbaum suggests US could send oil to Cuba

    Later in her press conference, Sheinbaum was asked whether Mexico would stop sending oil to Cuba if it meant that the U.S. would impose additional tariffs on Mexican goods.

    “We’re going to wait,” the president responded, stressing once again that her government needs greater clarity about the Trump administration’s plans.

    She subsequently told reporters that Mexico has only sent a minimal amount of oil to Cuba, although the exact quantities shipped to the Communist-run island in recent times are disputed.

    A Pemex storage facility with a Mexican flagA Pemex storage facility with a Mexican flag
    Mexico, via its state oil company Pemex, became the lead supplier of oil to Cuba after oil exports from Venezuela — the island’s previous top supplier — dropped in 2025. (Presidencia/Cuartoscuro)

    “Yesterday, the director of Pemex … [said that] what has been sent … is less than 1% of what Mexico produces,” Sheinbaum said, referring to shipments corresponding to contracts between the state oil company and Cuba as well as oil given to the Caribbean island as humanitarian aid.

    She went on to say that in Mexico, in Cuba, and in “other places around the world,” refined oil is used to fuel cars, public transport and power plants.

    “Let’s imagine there is no electricity. Without electricity, hospitals don’t work, refrigerators don’t work, and a humanitarian situation is created, … a situation that impacts people’s lives,” Sheinbaum said.

    “Our interest is that this doesn’t happen with the Cuban people. And I believe it’s not just our interest, the interest of the government, but the interest of all the people of Mexico,” she said.

    “And that’s what we want to express to the U.S. government — that it’s very important that there isn’t a situation of humanitarian crisis on the island,” Sheinbaum said.

    “So I gave instructions to the Minister of Foreign Affairs [Juan Ramón de la Fuente] to speak about this with the U.S. government, or [to propose] that they send oil [to Cuba]. It’s a matter of support for the Cuban people,” she said.

    “Of course, we don’t want to risk there being more tariffs on Mexico, do we? Rather, via diplomatic channels, we simply seek a scheme of dialogue, of communication, that ensures there is not a serious situation for the Cuban people, who are already going through a very difficult situation,” Sheinbaum said.

    Trump issued his executive order, titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba,” the same day as he spoke to Sheinbaum by telephone.

    Sheinbaum reiterated on Friday that she and Trump didn’t discuss Cuba during their 40-minute call.

    “We spoke about the Mexico-United States relationship. The issue of Cuba wasn’t discussed,” she said.

    By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)



    baja california violence cuba oil crisis cuba-mexico relations trump tariffs
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