When we last saw Max Scherzer, he was walking off the mound in Game 7 of the World Series. The future Hall of Famer had held the Dodgers to one run on four hits across 4 1/3 innings and left the game holding a 3-1 lead. It may not have been a vintage performance, but the three-time Cy Young winner did his job. The bullpen just didn’t hold the lead.
While Scherzer ended the year on a high note, his lone season in Toronto was a frustrating one. The nerve issue that has led to soreness in his thumb over the past few season returns early in 2025. He landed on the injured list after his first start and was sidelined into late June. Scherzer was healthy enough after that but didn’t have a great season. He only managed six quality starts among his 17 appearances. His 5.19 earned run average over 85 innings was the highest of his career.
Scherzer’s strikeout and walk rates remain solid. He punched out 23% of opponents while walking around 6% for the second consecutive season. Both marks are a little better than the respective league averages for a starter. The issue is the damage hitters have done when they make contact. Scherzer allowed more than two home runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. It was the fourth-highest homer rate in MLB among pitchers who threw 70+ innings.
As the stuff has backed up with age and the injuries, Scherzer had a tougher time getting opponents to go after pitches outside the strike zone. He had to challenge them in the heart of the plate more often to compensate, and he’s doing so without the overpowering arsenal he had in his prime. That’s going to lead to some home run trouble.
All that said, Scherzer still attacks the strike zone with a four-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball averaged 93.6 mph last season, well below peak but a tick above where it sat when he posted a 3.95 ERA over eight starts for the Rangers in 2024. He finished the year healthy, would bring a wealth of experience to younger members of a pitching staff, and has a 3.78 ERA over 33 career playoff appearances. There’s still a role for Scherzer in an MLB rotation somewhere.
The 41-year-old has already said he’s not retiring. He hasn’t fully committed to signing before Opening Day, however. In late January, Scherzer told Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic that while he’s open to signing at any time, he was willing to wait into the regular season to sign with one of the teams he prefers. It seems safe to assume he’s going to pick a team he views as a legitimate World Series contender.
Where might Scherzer end up? A return to the Blue Jays could make sense with Shane Bieber opening the season on the injured list. Toronto still has a five-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos and Cody Ponce with Eric Lauer around in long relief. Adding to the rotation isn’t a necessity, but bringing Scherzer back would allow them to use a six-man rotation to monitor Yesavage’s workload in the early going.
The Braves entered the spring with lackluster rotation depth and have been hit with injuries to Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep since camp got underway. The Phillies will be without Zack Wheeler to begin the year and are likely counting on both Taijuan Walker and prospect Andrew Painter for season-opening roles.
The Twins are probably losing Pablo López for the season; are they competitive enough for Scherzer to consider signing there? Texas has Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz competing for the fifth starter role, but Scherzer’s probably out of the price range. The Yankees are awaiting the returns of Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole. Projected fourth and fifth starters Ryan Weathers and Luis Gil have minor league options remaining and concerning injury histories.
Where do MLBTR readers expect Scherzer to land?
Where will Max Scherzer sign?
