The Twins traded 11 players at least year’s deadline, shipping out several rental veterans and a series of controllable relievers that left them with one of the game’s worst pitching staffs in the second half. That hit to the team’s more immediate competitiveness came with the upside of adding to an already impressive cache of starting pitching talent, however. Spring injuries to Pablo López and David Festa have thinned the herd, but the Twins have more viable starters than they can fit into a five-man rotation.
Righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are locked into spots. Ryan has been one of the American League’s most consistent starters in recent seasons. Ober has been a solid third/fourth starter for the bulk of his career but saw his 2025 numbers tanked by a catastrophic June. Simeon Woods Richardson is a heavy favorite to land a rotation spot since he’s out of minor league options and pitched well down the stretch in 2025.
Looking at the team’s optionable starters, there are a few who seem unlikely to make the rotation at this point. Lefties Kendry Rojas and Connor Prielipp and righties John Klein and Andrew Morris have yet to make their MLB debuts. They’ll likely start off in Triple-A, though any of the bunch could fight his way into a rotation spot later in the year. Putting Woods Richardson in the rotation and eliminating the players who have yet to debut in the majors from the conversation leaves three arms — Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and Zebby Matthews — for two spots.
Bradley, acquired last summer for Griffin Jax, is the most experienced at the big league level of the three. Once a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport, he made it to the majors with Tampa Bay in 2023 and has mostly stuck in their rotation since. He’s not yet enjoyed much in the way of results as a big leaguer, however, as demonstrated by his 4.86 ERA in 75 appearances (73 starts).
Bradley’s ERA+ peaked at 97 in 2024 and sits at just 85 for his career. His peripherals are better than his results, and his career 4.00 SIERA does offer some confidence about his ability to perform at the big league level. He won’t turn 25 until next month. Bradley is still young enough to be capable of breaking out in a big way, but he’s also young enough that spending time at Triple-A is hardly outlandish.
Matthews is about ten months older than Bradley but is less experienced in the majors. The right-hander has a similar resume in a smaller sample. He’s made just 25 big league starts, and while his 5.92 ERA is ugly, a 4.41 FIP and 3.80 SIERA both offer some reason for optimism.
Matthews has a career 24.7% strikeout rate against a 6.6% walk rate. That’s good for a K-BB% on par with high-end arms like Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta. Much of his struggles in terms of results surely has to do with an incredibly high .359 BABIP, which figures to come down across a larger sample. He also took a notable step forward in 2025 relative to 2024, as his barrel rate plummeted from 14% down to a more acceptable 9.9%, while his hard-hit rate dropped to 38.8%. Matthews’ struggles at the big league level might be enough to keep him out of the rotation to start the year, but the underlying metrics on the former top-100 prospect could warrant a longer look.
As for Abel, the right-hander is by far the least experienced in the majors. He made his MLB debut just last year and won’t turn 25 until August. He posted a 6.23 ERA in a 39 inning cup of coffee last year between the Phillies and Twins. That would make it easy to write Abel off for the Opening Day roster, but he has considerable pedigree as a recent top-100 prospect and has opened eyes this spring with a dominant performance. Abel has fired off ten scoreless innings in three starts with 13 strikeouts, good for a 39.4% clip. Bradley (seven runs in 14 innings, 19-to-5 K/BB) and Matthews (seven runs in six innings) haven’t been as sharp. Spring numbers only count for so much, of course, but Abel has made a stronger case for himself than his competition.
How do MLBTR readers expect the Twins to decide who gets left out of the Opening Day rotation? Will they leave off Abel due to his lack of experience, overlook Matthews’ strong peripherals, or not be swayed by Bradley’s experience? Have your say in the poll below:
