New Democrat member of parliament Lori Idlout has defected to the Liberals.
She chose to cross the aisle at a time when the Mark Carney government is pursuing an agenda that favours wealthy individuals and corporations and slashes essential services.
Carney and his team have cut, or are in the process of cutting: services to immigrants and refugees, foreign aid (notably for health programs), Indigenous services, environmental programs, and virtually everything else the federal government does, aside from the military.
At the same time, Carney has reduced taxes for corporations and high-income Canadians. Notably, he cancelled a planned modest increase to the capital gains tax.
As originally conceived, the capital gains increase might have sideswiped some start-up small businesses, and others such as cottage owners and farmers. But for the most part it only hit the über-wealthy.
Instead of correcting that tax increase’s unintended consequences, or finding other ways to get much needed increased revenue from those most able to pay more tax, Carney took the easy way out – which made Canada’s influential big business lobby very happy.
Despite all that, Prime Minister Carney and his Liberals are riding high in public esteem.
The government’s eye-popping favourable opinion poll numbers are making Liberal insiders swoon. In urgent stage-whispers they’re crying out: “Election! Election!”
If that weren’t enough, Carney has recruited four members of parliament from the opposition benches to his ever-growing caucus.
The first three were Conservatives, but the newest Liberal is an erstwhile New Democrat, the member of parliament for Nunavut, in the far north, the aforementioned Lori Idlout.
A silent sigh of relief from NDPers?
Many New Democrats are expressing deep disappointment at Idlout’s choice. Days before she switched parties, she had attended a rally for NDP leadership aspirant Avi Lewis.
A Machiavellian might argue, however, that NDPers are shedding crocodile tears. Secretly, they actually wanted to send one of their own to buttress Carney’s team, and thus head off an early election.
With Idlout plus the two Toronto seats the Liberals will almost certainly win in byelections scheduled for mid-April, Carney’s party will have a one seat majority in the House of Commons.
The Liberals also have a chance in the Terrebonne riding, just north of Montreal, which will go to the polls on the same day in April.
They won that seat by a single vote in the 2025 election, only to have the result overturned by the Supreme Court. The Bloc Québécois has strong support in Terrebonne, but the Liberals’ polling numbers are good in Quebec right now, which should give them a boost in the byelection.
If his candidates win in Terrebonne as well as the two Toronto seats, that would give the prime minister a munificent two-seat majority.
And with a majority, even a razor-thin one, it is unlikely Carney would heed the election hawks in his own camp. He seems to be, by nature, a prudent person, not given to unnecessary risks. Elections are always risky and unpredictable.
As for the NDP, it cannot, in any way, afford an election right now or any time soon. The party will not select a new leader until the end of March, and that person will face a number of big challenges that cannot be resolved in a few months.
Whoever wins will have to work hard on their French. None of the leadership candidates is comfortable enough in French to engage in the intensive activities required by an election campaign. Notable among those are the televised leaders’ debates in French.
Then there are the issues of party finances and strengthening the riding associations – not to mention the need for a robust, costed suite of policies.
What New Democrats and their new leader will need most of all is time. An early election would rob them of that precious commodity.
New Democrats will be free to oppose Carney, unequivocally
Had Lori Idlout not switched parties, and were the Liberals to remain a seat or two short of a majority, the New Democrats would be in the awkward position of having to tacitly support the Carney government on confidence votes – as they have done, from time to time, since last spring.
The NDP’s tactic has been to arrange to have a couple of their members absent themselves for key votes to assure the government would not be defeated.
That sort of wink-and-a-nod support has made NDPers look like enablers of government legislation, some of which they have criticized vociferously. And that’s not a good look for a party seeking to position itself as a progressive alternative to a rightward leaning Liberal government.
Once Carney secures a majority, the handful of NDP members of parliament will be able to wholeheartedly vote against all government legislation that runs counter to their values.
NDPers would not have to share any responsibility for overly-corporate-friendly Liberal policies (or any Liberal scandals or missteps that might crop up).
With time the NDP should be able to develop and articulate a coherent critique of the rightward-leaning Carney government.
There is a lot to not like in what Carney has been doing, but most Canadians are not noticing or feeling it right now.
And, of course, Canadians, including those who might be inclined to vote New Democrat, continue to be legitimately fearful of the imperialist and expansionist ambitions of our neighbour to the south.
With time, the political mood will shift, but the keyword is time.
In the interim, those who believe Carney’s mistaken when he seeks to resist Trump by mimicking his anti-immigrant, anti-development assistance, anti-environment policies will need time to make their case.
