Why the Blackhawks and Bruins Are Playoff Longshots Worth Betting

Its a slow Friday night in the NHL, with just two games on the docket. Push come to shove I like the Blackhawks at plus money vs. the Blues mostly because I rate these teams pretty similarly. 

But Joel Hofer is in the nets for St Louis and he’s played well over the last month with a 91.7% Save% and 3.23 GSAA. Plus the team seems to play better in front of Hofer than they do in front of their nominal top goalie Jordan Binnington, he of Stanley Cup and 4 Nations gold. So I will take a pass. 

I do have a couple more NHL futures plays I’d like to highlight, this time on the positive side!

Chicago Blackhawks to Make Playoffs +750

MoneyPuck 41%

Yes, these same Black Hawks. They have certainly shown signs of emerging from their extended rebuild. Future Superstar Connor Bedard has officially graduated to Current Superstar Status. He’s gone 19-23-42 to rank 5th in the league in scoring, and 2nd in the league in Connor’s, just behind McDavid with 44 points. He’s leading all Black Hawks skaters with over 21 of ice time per game and Chicago has 53.85% of the goal share when he’s on. Veterans Tyler Bertuzzi (16-10-26) and Teuvo Teravainen (11-6-17) have helped accelerate a promising young core into a team that currently sits in playoff position.

Perhaps the biggest reason they may hold their spot is the play of goaltender Spencer Knight. The 24 year old has a 91.6% Save% and 11.48 GSAA that ranks third in the league. The one time Panther has never started more than 38 games in an NHL season But he’s played pretty well when given the chance as he has 90.6% Save% in 116 career appearances. Can he keep this up? Well, that’s probably the key to Chicago hanging around as again, its a super young and not terribly deep team and they are unlikely to “buy” at the deadline.

A lot of this play is about the price. +750 implies they have an 11.8% chance to get to the playoffs. Moneypuck is not gospel of course, but they have it at 41%. So even if they are a bit off, there’s lots of EV in this play.

Boston Bruins to Make Playoffs +280

MoneyPuck 53%

There are a lot of similarities to the Blackhawks play. Original Six team in a rebuild and not expected to compete this season suddenly finds themselves playing well and in contention. And like Chicago, it’s a bit on the back of a stellar goaltender. In this case its a more proven commodity in Jeremy Swayman. He’s a 27 year old 6th year vet with a a 91.1% Save% and 45.5 GSAA in 210 career games. Swayman’s right in line with all that this season at 91.3% Save% and 9.14 GSAA in 20 games.

The Bruins sold big at the deadline last year, but there’s still plenty of star power on hand. The don’t have a young Bedard, but David Pastrnak (11-21-32) and Morgan Geekie (22-10-32) are among the top scorers in the league and Charlie McAvoy is one of the top defenseman

The Moneypuck number looks a bit high. But at 18-13, the Bruins have already booked a nice start and sit in 3rd in the Atlantic. Their odds are better than that 27% price that the market implies.