Back in the middle of January, I wrote about Miami of Ohio and argued that they shouldn’t be ranked yet. Since then, the Redhawks have rattled off 10 more wins, and currently sit at 29-0.
I don’t think I was all that wrong in saying that Miami shouldn’t be ranked, but overall, I am backtracking on my stance toward them. The analytical resume still isn’t great for Miami. They’re ranked 86th in KenPom, 285th in strength of schedule, and 51st in NET rating.
But I don’t think those metrics tell the full story with Miami. They’re 29-0, and their strength of record, which describes how impressive a team’s record is based on their wins and losses, is 21st. Including Miami, fifteen different teams have started at 25-0, and all of the prior teams have been a one-seed in the tournament.
I’m not arguing for Miami to be on the one line, but I think it’s ridiculous to say that they would be out of the tournament with one loss. My biggest issue is the rest of the teams on the bubble. Joe Lunardi is probably the best-known bracketologist, but he works for ESPN, and they have a heavy SEC bias.
He currently has 11 SEC teams in the tournament, and it makes no sense. Last season, the SEC was the by far best conference in the sport. I don’t think they’ve done anything this season to deserve that same level of respect from the committee.
The most egregious addition comes from Auburn. They’re 15-14! That record alone should remove them from any tournament consideration. Not only that, but they just finished February at 1-6, including losses to both Mississippi schools, who have a combined conference record of 9-23 and a combined overall record of 25-33. We know this team is not serious, and if this type of team is the reason Miami is left out of the dance, the whole tournament is a joke.
We don’t need 10+ teams from one conference. We’ve already seen those teams play each other, and I’d rather see more mid-majors have a shot in the tournament for playing well against their schedules.
Lastly, the NET rating system is broken. It does not punish teams for losing to good opponents; if anything, you get rewarded for losing to good teams. Because Miami’s SOS has remained low, when they beat other MAC schools, it impacts their NET ranking far more negatively than a power-five program losing to the worst team in the conference. It’s a continual cycle where the MAC is beating up on each other, and it’s always considered a bad loss.
Kent State, Toledo, and Akron are very solid programs at the top of the MAC this year, and beating them should be more advantageous than Auburn getting a 4-point home win over South Carolina. If Miami does stumble before the end of the season, I hope the committee is smart enough to keep them in the dance.
