Entering the offseason, two of the Cardinals’ three pricey veterans — Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado — made clear that they were more willing to waive their no-trade clause this winter than they were last. Gray said he’d “definitely” consider the possibility after chatting with new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom about the team’s direction. He’s already been shipped to the Red Sox. Arenado said he’d consider a broader range of teams this winter than last. He remains with St. Louis and will be extremely challenging to trade given his multiyear decline at the plate and the two expensive years left on his contract.
The Cardinals’ third spendy veteran, first baseman Willson Contreras, said on the final weekend of the season that he’d be open to trade scenarios if they made sense for both the organization and his own personal future but emphasized that his preference was to remain in St. Louis. Now, however, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that Contreras has become increasingly open to waiving his no-trade protection to greenlight a deal if he deems the new club to be a good fit.
Perhaps seeing Gray moved and witnessing a deluge of rumors about teammates like Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Nolan Gorman and others has proven eye-opening for Contreras. Maybe watching the 2025 postseason simply reignited his aspirations to return to the playoffs. Whatever the reason, it’s notable that Contreras is now signaling a greater willingness to approve a deal.
That doesn’t make it a foregone conclusion that he’ll be traded. Contreras’ contract isn’t as complicated as that of Gray or Arenado, but it’s not exactly a raucous bargain in its own right. He’s guaranteed $36.5MM over the next two seasons, plus a $5MM buyout on a club option for the 2028 season. That’s $41.5MM still guaranteed to him overall. Would a 33-year-old Contreras (34 in May) command that type of contract in free agency right now? It’s possible, but he likely wouldn’t earn much beyond that.
Contreras is coming off a strong overall season. He hit .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs, 31 doubles, a triple, five steals, a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. By measure of wRC+, he was 24% better than league-average at the plate. His defense at first base — his first year at the new position — drew strong marks from Statcast (6 Outs Above Average) and a roughly average grade from Defensive Runs Saved (-1). It’s not far-fetched to think his glove will improve as he gains more seasoning at his new defensive home.
The Astros signed Christian Walker for three years and $60MM last offseason, a contract that began with his age-34 season. In that sense, one could argue that Contreras’ contract is about market value from an AAV vantage point ($20.75MM AAV on the remaining guarantee) but is more appealing in that it’s a year shorter. Then again, Walker was an elite defensive first baseman who’d his 95 home runs across the three prior seasons; Contreras was a good-not-great defender in ’25 and has hit 55 home runs over the three prior seasons.
The Cards were willing to pay down around half the money remaining on Gray’s contract to get a decent return. They wouldn’t need to eat as much of the Contreras deal to move him, but the more money they absorb, the better the return they can seek. Trading him without paying down any of the remaining salary likely wouldn’t net much of a return at all.
If the Cardinals are willing to eat some of that cash, there should be no shortage of interest in the three-time All-Star. Clubs like the Red Sox (again!), Rangers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets, Marlins and Padres are lacking certainty at first base and/or designated hitter. The Cardinals appear willing to deal within the division, too, which could make Cincinnati or Pittsburgh viable on-paper fits. Could a catching-needy team go outside the box and acquire Contreras with an eye toward putting him back behind the plate? That might be a reach, but it’s a very thin market for catching both in free agency and trade this offseason.
For the Cards, the benefit of trading Contreras is straightforward. Obviously, trimming payroll ahead of a season (likely multiple seasons) where the team doesn’t expect to compete for a World Series would be preferable for ownership. Moving Contreras and including cash in the deal could also net prospect talent of some note, furthering the clear rebuilding efforts.
Trading Contreras would also open first base full-time for Alec Burleson, thereby creating more room in the outfield for players like Joshua Baez, Nathan Church and the seemingly stalled out Jordan Walker (among others). They could also continue giving Burleson some occasional reps in left field and at DH, thus opening more first base reps for Gorman, whose playing time elsewhere in the infield is going to be cut into by top prospect JJ Wetherholt. Then again, Gorman himself could be traded this winter.
Contreras is just one of many Cardinals who could find himself on the move before too long this winter. Bloom & Co. are known to be working to trade Arenado while listening to offers on Donovan, Romero, Nootbaar, Gorman and others. At this point, Contreras and Arenado are the only two Cardinals who are guaranteed any money beyond the current season.
