India’s Women’s World Cup 2025 campaign has taken a severe blow after the heart-breaking four-run defeat to England in Indore, marking their third consecutive loss in the tournament. With Australia, England and South Africa having secured the first three semi-final spots, the battle for the final fourth spot is now a direct, winner-takes-all scenario between the hosts, India and New Zealand.
Women’s World Cup 2025: India’s current standing and remaining fixtures
The loss to England on October 19th in Indore leaves the Women in Blue with a dire qualification mandate: they must win both their remaining matches to guarantee progression.
| Metric | Detail |
| Current Standings | 4th place on the points table |
| Matches Played | 5 |
| Wins/Losses | 2 Wins, 3 Losses |
| Points | 4 |
| Current NRR | +0.526 (Still superior to New Zealand’s -0.245 |
| Qualified Teams | Australia (9 pts), England (9 pts), South Africa (8 pts) |
| Remaining Matches | 2 |
| Upcoming Matches | New Zealand (Oct 23, Navi Mumbai), Bangladesh (Oct 26, Navi Mumbai) |
With only one semi-final spot remaining, the permutations have simplified, making the upcoming clash against New Zealand a virtual quarter-final.
| Scenario | Wins Required | Total Points | Likelihood | Outlook |
| Must-Win Route | 2 out of 2 (vs New Zealand and Bangladesh) | 8 Points | Guaranteed | A win against New Zealand is paramount; beating both rivals secures the 4th spot regardless of any other results. |
| Risk Route 1 | 1 out of 2 (Win vs NZ, Loss vs BAN) | 6 Points | High Risk | Qualification would depend entirely on New Zealand losing their final match to England and India maintaining a superior Net Run Rate (+0.526) over New Zealand’s current -0.245 |
| Risk Route 2 | 1 out of 2 (Loss vs NZ, Win vs BAN) | 6 Points | Very Difficult | India will be eliminated if New Zealand wins, as the White Ferns would reach 6 points with a better remaining match schedule to boost their NRR. |
| Rain Route | NR vs NZ, Win vs BAN | 7 Points | Highly Likely | A washout against New Zealand would give both teams 5 points. India’s significantly higher NRR (+0.526 vs NZ’s -0.245) means a point gained would keep India ahead, making the win against Bangladesh a virtual qualification. |
Women’s World Cup 2025: What Harmanpreet Kaur’s India must do next
The task for Harmanpreet Kaur’s team is now focused, with zero margin for error in the remaining two games, both to be played on familiar home grounds in Navi Mumbai.
- Treat New Zealand Match as a Final: The match on October 23rd against New Zealand is the definitive fixture. A victory here is non-negotiable for simple, self-reliant qualification. Winning this match would immediately put India on 6 points, giving them a clear advantage over New Zealand’s 4 points before the final round of games.
- Bolster the Bowling Unit and Fielding: The three consecutive losses have been defined by bowling and fielding lapses, allowing South Africa to chase 251 and Australia to set a new record with 330. The team must execute stricter, more disciplined bowling in the powerplay and death overs. The 4-run margin against England highlights the cost of 10+ extras and fielding errors.
- Capitalise on the NRR Cushion: Despite the losses, India retains a strong positive NRR of +0.526 compared to New Zealand’s negative figure. To maximize this advantage, India must target convincing big-margin victories in both matches, particularly against Bangladesh, which would offer critical insurance should the final standings come down to Net Run Rate.
- Finish Strong: The Bangladesh Match: Assuming India wins against New Zealand, the final league match against Bangladesh (currently on 2 points) is a crucial opportunity to either cement qualification or boost the NRR significantly, ensuring they cannot be overtaken by New Zealand or any other outside contender.
Women’s ODI World Cup 2025: Fight for the final spot and semifinal pairings
Should the Women in Blue successfully navigate the final hurdles against New Zealand and Bangladesh to secure the fourth semi-final spot, their focus will immediately shift to the knockout fixtures. The three qualified teams are currently ranked as: 1. Australia (9 pts, NRR +1.818), 2. England (9 pts, NRR +1.490), and 3. South Africa (8 pts, NRR -0.440). The semi-finals are scheduled for October 29 (1st Semi-Final at Guwahati) and October 30 (2nd Semi-Final at Navi Mumbai).
The hosts would, as the 4th-placed team, most likely face the table-toppers, which will be a battle between Australia and England, likely positioning India for the tougher first semi-final. However, the final standings will determine the pairings (1st vs 4th and 2nd vs 3rd). Despite the precarious position following three consecutive defeats, the Indian team, playing in front of their home crowds, still possesses the inherent talent and experience to stage a complete turnaround and reach the Final, scheduled for November 2 in Navi Mumbai. The one contingency remains that if Pakistan were to qualify, their knockout matches would be shifted to the neutral venue of Colombo.
This article was first published at WomenCricket.com, a Cricket Times company.
