As the league stage of the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 draws to a close, the final semi-final spot remains fiercely contested. While Sri Lanka’s chances appear slim, the team still maintains a mathematically viable, albeit challenging, path to advance. Their qualification depends entirely on a combination of a dominant performance in their final match and multiple favorable outcomes from their rivals.
Semi-final spots secured: The three-way battle for the last berth
The picture at the top of the table is clear: Australia, England and South Africa have already guaranteed their places in the tournament’s semi-finals. This leaves India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka locked in a tense competition for the final remaining knockout berth.
Currently, Sri Lanka sits on 4 points with a heavily detrimental Net Run Rate (NRR) of -1.035. This places them significantly behind India (+0.526) and trailing New Zealand (-0.245), making the final push exceptionally difficult.
The tightrope walk: Sri Lanka’s mandatory winning path
For Sri Lanka to pull off this remarkable comeback and secure a semi-final spot, three critical results must occur:
A decisive victory: Sri Lanka must defeat Pakistan in their final league match by a substantial margin. This is crucial for giving their NRR a much-needed boost.
India’s stumble: India must lose both of their remaining fixtures – against New Zealand and Bangladesh – to remain stagnant on their current point tally.
New Zealand’s defeat: New Zealand needs to suffer a loss in their final group match, against England, to ensure they do not surpass the four-point mark.
Overcoming the NRR deficit: Why margin of victory matters?
The most imposing hurdle for Sri Lanka is their current Net Run Rate. Even if the results involving India and New Zealand align perfectly, Sri Lanka will likely find themselves tied on points with New Zealand.
In such a scenario, the final semi-finalist will be decided by the superior NRR. Given that Sri Lanka’s current NRR (-1.035) is dramatically worse than New Zealand’s (-0.245), their victory against Pakistan must be overwhelming to flip this deficit. The team needs to win emphatically to push their NRR past New Zealand’s, a task that demands both skill and luck.
If Sri Lanka manages to navigate this complex set of requirements, it would be celebrated as one of the most memorable comebacks in World Cup history. However, should they fall short, the last semi-final place will ultimately be claimed by either India or New Zealand, based on their final match-day results.
This article was first published at WomenCricket.com, a Cricket Times company.
