There hasn’t been much movement at the top of the free agent rotation market. Most of the focus on starting pitching has been on the trade front, though we didn’t see any major deals at the Winter Meetings.
Most of the top trade candidates are questionable to move at all. Brewers star Freddy Peralta is among that group. Milwaukee isn’t motivated to trade the All-Star righty on the heels of a 97-win season, but they’re not going to shut down conversations entirely. They’ve heard from no shortage of teams with interest. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Astros, Giants, Mets, Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees are among the clubs that have reached out about Peralta.
The wide range of suitors is to be expected. Houston, San Francisco, Baltimore and the Mets all have starting pitching at or near the top of the priority list. The Astros are focusing on the trade market as they try to stay below the luxury tax line. The Giants and Mets have ample payroll flexibility but have downplayed their desire to make long-term commitments to a starter. The Orioles are casting a wide net to find an impact arm who can slot in the upper half of the rotation. They’ve been tied to Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez in free agency, as well as trade possibilities like Edward Cabrera and MacKenzie Gore.
The Yankees will begin the season without Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón due to injury. Clarke Schmidt may miss the entire season rehabbing Tommy John surgery. They’re set to open the season with Max Fried and Cam Schlittler in the top two spots. Will Warren and Luis Gil project as the third and fourth arms for now, and they don’t have a fifth starter lined up. Warren had a solid rookie season but struggled with the home run ball. Gil was the Rookie of the Year in 2024. This year, he was limited to 57 innings with mediocre strikeout and walk numbers after missing a few months with a lat strain.
Boston isn’t as clearly in need of starting pitching. They entered the offseason pursuing a #2 starter. They’ve acquired Sonny Gray to fill that role and brought in Johan Oviedo as a back-end option. The focus is on adding a big bat or two, but they’ve been tied to virtually every free agent or trade candidate of significance.
Peralta fits on every contender. He’ll make $8MM in the final season of what turned out to be a dramatically team-friendly extension. He’s coming off a career-low 2.70 ERA and finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting. This was the third straight season in which he reached 200 strikeouts and started 30+ games. The Brewers fully expect to compete for another division title themselves. They’ve pulled the trigger on trades of stars with dwindling club control windows (e.g. Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes) to remain consistently competitive, though that’s not an absolute. They were happy to hold Willy Adames all the way to free agency.
Adames rejected a qualifying offer and netted a compensatory draft pick when he signed with the Giants. Barring injury, Peralta would be a near lock to do the same if Milwaukee holds him all year. That’d net them a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2027 draft — assuming he signs for at least $50MM. Milwaukee would be entitled to the highest level of compensation as a revenue sharing recipient.
Obviously, the Brewers could extract a far greater return for even one year of Peralta’s services on the trade market. They’re balancing that against the hit it’d deal to the 2026 team. Brandon Woodruff is back to join Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski and Chad Patrick in what would still be a high-upside rotation. Every club would be better with Peralta on it, though.
President of baseball operations Matt Arnold addressed the Peralta rumors shortly before the Winter Meetings. “I’m not sure that there’s a scenario that’s been presented that would make any sense for us,” Arnold said last week (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). “We obviously get hits on him all the time. He’s a very popular target, certainly. But he’s also a huge part of our team and we want to be competitive in 2026. A big part of this is bringing back the core that we had last year.”
