Zack Wheeler is maybe the biggest wild card as the Phillies try to claim a third straight NL East title. The ace is working back from the thoracic outlet surgery that ended his 2025 season. The procedure came with a six to eight month recovery timeline from the end of September, calling his availability for the start of ’26 into question.
As camp gets underway, manager Rob Thomson provided a vague timetable for Wheeler’s return. “I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day but it’s not going to be too far beyond that,” Thomson told reporters (link via Paul Casella of MLB.com). The 35-year-old righty is throwing from flat ground and “doing well” in the manager’s words, yet the Phils are obviously going to be cautious with the three-time All-Star. He has not progressed to mound work.
Between Wheeler’s injury and the free agent departure of Ranger Suárez, it’s a thinner starting staff than usual. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) they’ll look to deepen that group throughout the spring. “When our scouts go out there, that’ll be one of our focuses. And we may develop that internally, too; there’s some guys that we do like. But that’ll be a focus of ours, is starting pitching depth,” Dombrowski said.
That’s not to say the Phillies are likely to add Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito or Chris Bassitt. It’s generally expected that their three-year deal to bring back J.T. Realmuto was the final big move of an offseason built around re-signing Kyle Schwarber that also saw them sign right fielder Adolis García and reliever Brad Keller.
There are some potential swing options available in free agency (e.g. Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale), though Dombrowski suggested there might be opportunities on the trade front. He noted that the relatively slow-moving free agent market for starting pitching could make some fringe arms on those signing teams available via trade — though that could certainly be counteracted as teams start losing pitchers to injury, as happens every year during Spring Training. A trade would also provide the Phillies with some extra roster flexibility if they can add someone who still has options remaining. Most free agents have the five-plus years of service time that gives them the right to refuse a minor league assignment.
Assuming Wheeler begins the season on the injured list, Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez should get his first Opening Day start. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola. Taijuan Walker worked in a swing role last year but seems more or less assured of a season-opening rotation spot.
That’d leave the fifth spot available in a camp battle. Top prospect Andrew Painter has a legitimate chance to win the job. Philly needed to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason because he’d reached Rule 5 eligibility. His stock has dipped a little from the time that he was widely viewed as the #1 pitching prospect in the sport. An elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery cost him the 2023-24 seasons.
Painter’s numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year weren’t as impressive. He surrendered a 5.40 ERA with a good but not elite 23.4% strikeout rate over 22 starts. He proved more susceptible to the home run than the Phillies would have liked, though his raw stuff remained very impressive. Painter averaged nearly 97 mph on his four-seam fastball while mixing in three breaking pitches (cutter, slider, curveball) and a changeup. He got whiffs on a strong 13% of his offerings. He remains one of the better pitching prospects in MLB and one of Philly’s top three minor league talents alongside shortstop Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford.
If Painter scuffles during Spring Training, the Phils can option him back to Lehigh Valley. They’re currently without many real alternatives to hold the fort until Wheeler’s season debut, however. Their other starters on the 40-man roster (e.g. Jean Cabrera, Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel) also have little to no MLB experience. Non-roster invitees Tucker Davidson and Bryse Wilson don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Keller has starting experience but was signed to be a high-leverage reliever.
It’s understandable the Phillies want to leave the door open for Painter to win the job, especially if they anticipate Wheeler coming back within the first few weeks of the regular season. At the same time, even one more injury would leave the rotation looking precarious. Nola is coming off a bad season and Walker’s tenure in Philly has been a mixed bag. Wheeler is no guarantee to look the same as he did before the surgery. Adding some kind of swing depth is a must.
