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It’s Week 3 in the Canadian Football League, which is a little funny because it’s the first time we have more than three games on the schedule. Yes, it’s time to celebrate with four games for us to pick from this week.
Now, that being said, this is your reminder that we aren’t going to make a bet on each game in this piece each week. The oddsmakers need to set a line for every game, but we don’t need to make a play on every game. Our only edge is our ability to pick and choose.
So, lets see if we can take advantage of that edge this week.
B.C. Lions at Hamilton Tiger Cats — Friday, June 19 at 7:30 p.m. EDT
The Lions look to bounce back from their last-minute loss against the Riders when they travel to the Hammer for a date with the Ticats.
Hamilton is coming off an impressive early-season win over Winnipeg and return home with a 1-1 record. Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns in their Week 2 win and will look to do the same against a B.C. team that gave up 417 yards to Trevor Harris last week.
I’m sure Ticats fans are hoping for a bit more respect after that win, but for the second week in a row I’m picking against them.
I thought the Lions got better as their game with the Riders went on. One of the reasons I’m leaning towards the road side this week is their pass rush. Saskatchewan was able to limit last year’s sack leader Mathieu Betts and the rest of the Lions rushers for much of their West Division Final rematch. I believe they will be able to get on track this week against Steeltown.
The other issue I see for Hamilton is having to deal with Nathan Rourke. The Ticats have allowed 388.5 yards per game through the air early in the season. And yes, that was against two of the better QBs in the league in Davis Alexander and Zach Collaros, but they now have to deal with the QB who many believe is the best of the bunch.
Plus, with Wynton McManis out for another week, that takes a general out of the middle of the field and could be an issue if Nathan Rourke decides to run. Rourke actually led the Lions in rushing yards last week with just five carries for 59 yards.
I do think this Ticats team will be dangerous as the year goes on, but I think this is a tricky matchup for them against a frustrated Lions team.
Pick: Lions -1.5, Rourke over 28.5 rush yards
Toronto Argonauts at Ottawa Redblacks — Saturday, June 20 at 1:00 p.m. EDT
The Saturday triple-header starts with two teams looking for their first wins of the season.
Ottawa is coming off a bye where they got to sit and watch Toronto come out on the wrong side of a 37-30 shootout against Montreal.
The problem for Ottawa is I don’t believe they can do any of the things that Montreal did to be successful in that game.
If this turns into a wild shootout, I would pick Chad Kelly in that spot over Jake Maier every time. Plus, if Montreal’s defence couldn’t slow down the Argos passing attack, I really don’t think Ottawa’s defence can do much better.
Kelly was dialled-in last week, throwing for 445 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, and that was the game I was worried the rush would be a factor. I’m not going to go so far as to say he’s going to throw for 500 yards, but I think the controversial QB could be in line for another big day.
Pick: Argonauts -1.5, Kelly over 325 passing yards
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Calgary Stampeders — Saturday, June 20 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
The defending Grey Cup champions picked up where they left off with a win over B.C. last week. Now they take on a Stampeders team coming off their bye.
Calgary got the better of this matchup last year, and they have traditionally been a very good team coming off their bye under Dave Dickenson. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan looked very impressive in their win over the Lions, so this is a tricky matchup to get a handle on.
One thing that really carried over from the Riders’ season last year was their quick start. The Green and White jumped out to a 17-3 lead on the Lions before Nathan Rourke led the charge to come back and eventually take the lead.
Saskatchewan was very good at getting the lead last year, as many of their games followed the same script, which saw the Riders get an early lead and then have to hold on while their opponents charged back.
I’m sure Calgary is going to provide quite a bit of resistance to this, but I still think Trevor Harris will get his group off to a quick start in their first road game of the season.
Pick: Roughriders -0.5 in the first half
