3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 9

Photo courtesy: Saskatchewan Roughriders

We’re entering Week 9 in the Canadian Football League, and there’s real separation forming between the haves and the have-nots.

Only one spread this week is within a field goal, and two games are basically a touchdown apart as we head towards kickoff. With that said, there is still value to be had across the board.

Montreal Alouettes at Ottawa Redblacks — Friday, July 31 at 7:30 p.m. EDT

The team with the longest active winning streak in the CFL meets the team with the longest active losing streak at TD Place Stadium.

I mentioned before that there are some pretty wide spreads this week. For the other two games in which that’s the case, quarterback injuries are the primary reason why. For this game, it’s just because of how poorly the Redblacks have played.

Ottawa is third-last in points per game this year, and they have allowed the most points per game. Meanwhile, Montreal is in the top-half of the league in both categories.

Ottawa has allowed the second-most yards per game this season, while Montreal has gained the most yards in the league. You can see where I’m going with this.

If the Redblacks are going to have any shot in this game, they’re going to need a huge game from Jake Maier.

The veteran QB is coming off a game in which he set a season-high with 344 passing yards. That was a bit of an outlier for him, as the only passers behind Maier have at least 74 fewer attempts than him.

He’ll be in tough this week as Montreal has given up the third-fewest passing yards in the league this season. The line for Maier’s passing yards has been set at 292.5 this week. Montreal has only allowed one QB to get over that mark since Week 3.

In fairness, that QB was Maier, but I don’t see a repeat performance this week.

Pick: Montreal -6.5, Maier Under 292.5 passing yards

Calgary Stampeders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — Saturday, August 1 at 3:00 p.m. EDT

The first game of August features the Stampeders looking for their second straight win as they travel to Steeltown.

Calgary is coming off a convincing victory over Winnipeg last week, while Hamilton fell to Montreal. I said it last week and I’ll say it again: the Stampeders are a much better team than their record indicates.

Travelling across the country is tough, but I still really like the Stampeders in this game. Calgary has hung with the best teams in the league, while taking care of business against everyone else. With their current QB situation, Hamilton falls into the “everyone else” category.

Tre Ford showed some flashes last week against Montreal, but poor decision-making at bad times ended up costing them. Calgary’s secondary is quite vulnerable, but their pass-rush is improving each week, so Ford may not have the time or space to create in the ways he needs to in order to be successful.

On the other side, Hamilton’s defence has been a very strong unit. They’ve allowed the second-fewest points per game and the second-lowest net offence so far this year. One area in which they haven’t been as strong is the run game, where they are in the bottom-half of the league in rushing yards allowed.

Calgary is the top rushing team in the league at 120 yards per game — almost seven yards more than the next closest team. I think Calgary controls this game on both sides of the ball and rides out of The Hammer with another win.

Pick: Calgary -4.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Elks — Saturday, August 1 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

The last game of Week 9 is a rematch of the first game from Week 8, which saw the Edmonton Elks beat the Saskatchewan Roughriders in a classic in Regina.

Edmonton proved they are a real threat in the West Division with that win, and now they return home as 1.5-point favourites. And yet, I’m going with the Riders in this matchup.

These two teams are obviously very closely matched, but it did feel like Saskatchewan let that game slip away a bit. Harris had a very rare miss of a wide-open receiver in the end zone on a play that would have iced away a win for the Riders. Plus, Edmonton needed a bomb of a field goal to get that victory.

All of that came after a very emotional week for Saskatchewan that, understandably, showed up on the field in the early parts of that game. Now, the Riders hit the road where they are 2-0 to start the year.

None of this is a slight against Edmonton; they proved last week that they are deserving of their spot on top of the standings. This is more of an endorsement of the defending Grey Cup champions, who I expect to get back on track.

Pick: Saskatchewan +1.5

Peter Klein is a Saskatchewan-born, Calgary-based CFL analyst. He is a lifelong fan who has been covering the league across multiple platforms for the last 17 years.