4:40pm: Manager Craig Counsell tells 104.3 The Score that Steele has a flexor strain and will be re-evaluated in a month.
3:55pm: Cubs left-hander Justin Steele has hit a setback in his recovery from last year’s elbow surgery, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The specifics of the setback aren’t clear but Rogers suggests that Steele’s return timeline is likely to be pushed into the future.
Steele underwent surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament in April of 2025. The Cubs called it a “revision repair”, something less than a full Tommy John surgery, and suggested Steele could be back in about a year’s time. He was throwing off a mound by the end of January 2026, creating some hope that he could return fairly early in 2026.
The Cubs put Steele on the 60-day injured list just as the season was beginning, meaning he couldn’t officially return prior to late May. Even that timeline may no longer be on the table, as Rogers says the plan of returning by Memorial Day may now be in jeopardy.
Further details will likely be forthcoming from the club prior to tonight’s game. Whenever Steele is finally healthy, it will still be a while before he can rejoin the club. He’ll need to build up through the standard steps of throwing bullpens, then live batting practice, then a rehab assignment, with that overall process to take at least a few weeks.
It’s the latest bit of rough injury news for the Cubs. They have had a number of pitchers hit the injured list this year. In terms of quantity, most of the guys on the IL have been relievers. But the most notable blow has been that starter Cade Horton required Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.
As of a few weeks ago, it was possible to imagine the Chicago rotation having Steele, Horton and Edward Cabrera in the top three spots. Now Horton is ruled out completely and Steele is up in the air. Cabrera has a 2.73 earned run average but with some worrying signs under the hood. His four-seam velocity is down more than a tick, having gone from last year’s 97 miles per hour to this year’s 95.7. His strikeout rate has also fallen, sitting at 18.5% this year, a huge drop from the 25.8% rate he had in 2025.
The current rotation is therefore lacking in upside compared to the theoretical one they could have had. Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea are talented pitchers but the whole group would be better if Steele and Horton were in it and if Cabrera was shoving more concretely.
Despite all the injuries, the Cubs have a strong 17-12 record. Assuming they stay in contention for the next few months, they were likely going to be looking for rotation upgrades to replace Horton. If Steele’s setback proves significant, then that should only increase their urgency there. If another injury pops up in the meantime, Javier Assad is probably the next man up, as he is currently pitching in long relief out of the bullpen.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images
