MLB Betting Picks Today: Wednesday May 6th Predictions

I know every pitcher is one throw away from an endless IL stay. But is this year the worst ever for ace injuries? Just in the last week, fantasy rosters (and ok, real life teams, also) have lost Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Casey Mize, Trevor Rogers and Brandon Woodruff and likely Joe Ryan as well.

But hey, at least we have some returnees and a couple of them pitch today. So let’s dig in with the MLB picks.

Season Record 17-14-1, +0.57 Units

A’s at Phillies

A’s F5 +.5 (+100 BetMGM)
I am really going against the recent trends here as the Phillies are on a 7-1 heater since they replaced manager Rob Thompson with Don Mattingly (yes, he has shaved his sideburns).

And they start Zack Wheeler, who looks as good as ever upon his return from Thoracic Outlet surgery. His velo is down 1.8 MPH or so on his fastball since last year, but he has a 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 32.6% K% through 11 IP over two starts. It’s really early obviously but so far he’s throwing his fastball less (33% vs. 41%) and mixing in his other offerings a little more each. I’m not the biggest believer in arsenal metrics (give me actual results) but fwiw, his Stuff+ is down from 111 to 103 and his Pitching+ is down from an elite 121 to 102.

More worrisome to the Phillies is that they are absolutely terrible this year vs. lefties, and they face a good one today in Jeffrey Springs. He’s 3-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 38.2 IP. The Phils have a 67 wRC+ vs. southpaws, 3rd worst in MLB, and they’re 2-10-1 on the F5 ML for a -59.9% ROI as per VSiN.

They’re an even uglier 1-12 -84.6% ROI on the F5 Run Line. Give me the A’s as a plus money shot here.

Blue Jays at Rays

Shane McClanahan Over 15.5 outs recorded (-105 DraftKings)

The Rays one time lefty ace missed the last two months of the 2023 season and then the entirety of 2024 and 2025. So it was kind of understandable that he had a lot of rust to shake as he returned to the major league mound this spring. He had kind of a rough go of it in his first 4 starts as he pitched to a 5 ERA and a kind of alarming 13.8% BB%. He made it to 5 IP just once. But in the two starts since then he looks back in top form. He has a 29% K% and 4.9% BB% with a 0.90 WHIP and 0 earned runs over 11 IP.

He’s never really been an innings eater, but this sets up as a good spot to at least get to his Outs total. The Jays have a mediocre 89 wRC+ vs. lefties and they have league low 16.3% K% against southpaws. So we should see lots of contact and ergo quicker PA’s.