President Trump successfully ousted several Indiana Republicans who blocked a redistricting push in that state, but growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s agenda gave Democrats an opening in Ohio.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
President Trump largely succeeded in his effort to punish Indiana lawmakers who did not go along with a redistricting plan last year.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Trump targeted seven incumbent state senators, backing challengers against them. Most of the incumbents lost.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR’s Stephen Fowler is here to share what these results can tell us about the upcoming midterms. So, Stephen, let’s start off with Indiana.
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Five of these challengers decisively won. There was one incumbent who prevailed, and another race is still too close to call – currently separated by three votes. More than $7 million were spent on just TV ads to convince a few thousand people to pick a handful of different lawmakers who basically have the same views as the existing office holders, except the one time they differed from Trump. It’s just another example of how for Trump’s base, he’s the alpha and omega, and nothing changes their view of him. However, at a time where polling shows the base is shrinking and there’s little support for Trump and his policies outside of that group – and when other Republicans on the ballot could use his help – it is notable, A, that this is how Trump is spending his time and energy and resources in an otherwise unfavorable midterm environment.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. Ohio also held primaries Tuesday. You’ve been reporting for a year and a half on Democrats doing better than expected. Did that happen in Ohio?
FOWLER: Absolutely. Even though there wasn’t really a competitive primary for either party for the statewide governor and Senate races, according to election data, there were more Democrats than Republicans that voted early. And in a number of key House districts, you had more Democrats show up, too. And primary elections can act as a sort of temperature check for how voters are feeling. Mike McCarty (ph) of Maumee, Ohio, told NPR he was looking for change.
MIKE MCCARTY: I would like to see a Democratic majority in Congress, especially because I think what Trump is doing and what his administration is doing is not good for America.
FOWLER: Democrats feel like they have a good shot at flipping the Ohio governor’s race and the Senate race in what will be some of the most competitive and expensive races in the country in November and as they try to hold on to two House seats that were redrawn to be more conservative-leaning.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. Stephen, you know this. We’re six months out from the general election. I mean, what else should we take away as we look to the primaries in the weeks and months ahead?
FOWLER: Well, the Indiana state Senate aside, it is very hard to unseat an incumbent. And for U.S. House members on the ballot, that remained true. However, in Indiana, you saw nearly every incumbent who did have primary challengers get under 70% of the vote. There was one incumbent who raised 100 times more than his opponent and narrowly survived. There was another who had a close race against someone who never filed any campaign fundraising reports. So you could say that voters are signaling a desire for something in someone else.
I also want to reiterate that in pretty much every state that’s had a primary so far – you know, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Illinois – you’ve seen a surge of Democratic turnout, and Republicans have been more eh, which, if those feelings continue through November, it’s going to make the country’s politics look very, very different next year and for the final two years of Trump’s term.
MARTÍNEZ: That’s NPR political reporter Stephen Fowler, Stephen, thanks.
FOWLER: Thank you.
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