The American League has been trailing behind the National League for the last few years. Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays were a half-inch away from stealing the World Series, but as a whole, the NL has had significantly more depth, and the super villains that are the Los Angeles Dodgers.
However, before I continue bashing the American League, I will give credit to 1 ½ teams. The New York Yankees look like a serious title contender this year. Aaron Judge is still doing Aaron Judge-like things, but this year he’s got Ben Rice to help him out on offense.
The lineup still feels like it needs another bat, but they have the pitching to carry them in the postseason. Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, and Will Warren are already an elite front three, but a healthy Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón could take them up to an entirely new level.
Staying in the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the next best team in the AL, but I still need to see them perform like this for longer before I fully buy in. I don’t see a guy like Nick Martinez producing a 1.71 ERA all season long, but I do have solid faith in Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan to continue to produce at All-Star levels.
The top two in the AL are clearly out East, but is there anyone else in the Central and West that can even contend with them? Cleveland Guardians and the Athletics are currently leading their divisions, but they’re both incredibly flawed.
Cleveland will continue to show average pitching and hitting, yet they will most likely still win the AL Central because they poured the right amount of rum into Jobu’s cup. They likely don’t have the guns to win in the postseason, and their recent addition of Patrick Bailey might improve the pitching staff, but they somehow made their catching situation even worse offensively.
Moving out West, the Athletics have been a great story to start the year, but I don’t think they’re seriously ready to win their division. They absolutely have the offense to win the West, but their starting rotation is still a massive work in progress. Aaron Civale currently has the lowest ERA in their rotation, but he’s a guy who I think could give up 10 runs in a postseason start. I’m not sure this team is ready to contend, but if they got aggressive at the deadline and added a front-line starter, the timeline could speed up quite quickly for the A’s
I think there are two other AL teams that haven’t looked like contenders, but still need to be discussed. The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners were the favorites to come out of their respective divisions, but both have stumbled out of the gate.
Detroit has a million injuries going on with their pitching, the most significant being elbow surgery for Tarik Skubal. If they can weather this storm and stay within striking distance of Cleveland, they certainly could still make noise with their pitching come October.
Seattle, on the other hand, has been healthy, but has been dealing with some uncharacteristically rough pitching from their rotation. I’m far more confident that they’ll figure this out and still win the West. Prediction markets still have the Mariners around a 50% chance to win the West, and I’d still bet on them to figure it out.
It’s way too early to count anyone out in the American League; however, if things don’t change, it might be a two-horse race with teams in the AL East.
