AS Andalucia’s electoral campaign winds down this Friday, polls continue to place the ruling Partido Popular (PP) comfortably in the lead ahead of the May 17 regional vote.
The right-wing PP has governed Andalucia since 2019, with Junta president Juanma Moreno now poised for a third consecutive mandate.
A May 11 survey by Sociometrica projected the party winning between 54 and 55 seats in the regional parliament, with 55 required for an absolute majority.
Favourable polling has prompted Moreno to suggest he would not enter a coalition with Vox if re-elected, despite earlier indications that the PP might need the far-right party’s support to govern.
Vox’s ‘national priority plan’
The development will be closely watched by expats across Andalucia. Earlier this month, Vox spokesperson Carlos Hernandez Quero had said his party would impose a ‘national priority’ plan as a condition for any coalition deal with the PP.
The proposal included prioritising citizens described as having ‘Spanish roots’ for access to public services such as healthcare, education, and housing.
The measure has proved highly controversial due to the ambiguity of its wording, with Vox leader Santiago Abascal describing it as ‘putting Spaniards first in their own country,’ ensuring public resources go to those with a ‘genuine, lasting and verifiable connection with the territory.’
While Vox has not clarified what this would mean in practice for the region’s thousands of foreign residents, the proposal now appears off the table – at least for now – as Moreno moves towards governing alone.
A ‘full-blown’ health crisis
But there is far more at stake in these elections. While Moreno’s mandate was initially due to expire in June, he decided in March to bring the vote forward amid mounting political pressure and a deepening healthcare crisis in Andalucia.
The governor has faced scathing criticism over worsening hospital waiting lists, medical staffing shortages, and broader strain on the public health system – with a recent national doctors’ strike adding to the mayhem.
A major controversy also emerged over delays in Andalucia’s cancer screening programmes, with opponents describing it as a ‘full-blown crisis.’
The scandal left nearly 2,000 women potentially misdiagnosed or untested due to staffing shortages and administrative failures, prompting the resignation of health minister Rocio Hernandez in October last year.
Moreno has said his administration was increasing investment in healthcare, but has not provided detailed responses to the specific allegations.
READ MORE: Bank of Spain rules out property bubble: Housing market still ‘15% below 2008 peak’
Housing shortages and Moreno’s pledge
Under his leadership, the government has also come under growing pressure over a housing crisis, with the region estimated to be short by almost 90,000 homes relative to demand.
According to data from the Bank of Spain and the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the crunch is driven by rising costs and hamstrung supply – with Malaga rents jumping a staggering 32% over the past decade.
The squeeze has been intensified by the expansion of short-term holiday rentals, with the INE estimating around 150,000 across Andalucia as of May.
The Junta has pledged to deliver around 20,000 affordable homes over five years, though whether this will be enough to ease the wider crisis remains uncertain.
In the meantime, nearly seven million voters are expected to head to the polls this Sunday.
Only Spanish citizens are eligible to vote in national and regional elections, with foreign nationals only permitted to vote in local elections if registered as residents.
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