The San Antonio Spurs might not even make the NBA Finals, but they’re the smartest prediction to win the NBA Championship.
On Saturday night, the Spurs will battle the Oklahoma City Thunder for the final time in Game 7 of their highly contested Western Conference Finals series.
Popular prediction markets like Kalshi, which allows users to trade outcomes of real-world events, are giving the Spurs just a 26% chance of winning the 2026 NBA championship. A contract on the Spurs to win the championship is 27¢. The Spurs are the longest shot remaining, and that’s what makes them the smart pick right now to win the Finals.
The Thunder have the best probability to win the championship, according to Kalshi, with 43% probability. Oklahoma City has been the class of the NBA since winning the championship last season, but there’s no guarantee that they won’t be upset against the Spurs in Game 7. Currently, the Thunder have a 59% chance of winning Game 7 on their home floor against the Spurs.
Based on value alone, the Spurs should be the pick. Even if you believe that Oklahoma City is the best of the final three teams remaining (which is probably true), Game 7s are weird. Anything can happen.
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The Spurs looked really good in Game 6. Phenom Victor Wembanyama flushed his poor outing in Game 5 by scoring 28 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. A big game from Wembanyama in Game 7 could be on the horizon, which would make San Antonio four wins away from the NBA Finals.
There isn’t a single team in the NBA that has figured out how to slow down Wembanyama. Even though the New York Knicks employ Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson, Wembanyama is a different breed. He shot 4-of-9 from deep in Game 6. Sure, Towns is athletic enough to guard the perimeter. But against a 7-foot-4 Wembanyama? Good luck with that.
The Spurs are also in a great position – they’re playing without any pressure.
Oklahoma City faces a do-or-die Game 7 just to get back to the NBA Finals. The Knicks are carrying the weight of their 53-year championship drought. Meanwhile, the Spurs are just young enough to be playing without any serious expectations. Wembanayama is only 22. There will be plenty of more opportunities for him, which is what could make the Spurs so dangerous in Game 7.
Even though the Thunder and the Knicks have cold blooded killers in back-to-back NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson, the Spurs have plenty of depth. The Knicks will be rested, so San Antonio will need to lean on Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, too.
The Spurs might not be the best team remaining from a talent standpoint. But they’re the smartest pick to make right now.
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