ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Ethiopia heads to the polls on Monday in an election that the ruling party is predicted to win by a landslide due to a fragmented and weak opposition.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party currently holds more than 500 seats in the House of Representatives and is expected to win a majority in this election, securing him another five-year term.
Some 50 million people, out of a population of 130 million Ethiopians, are expected to vote for members of the House of Representatives, but insecurity in the most populous regions, including Amhara and Oromia, is expected to affect turnout.
Ethiopia’s electoral system allows voters to select their representatives, who then vote for a prime minister. Ethiopians will also vote for members of their local regional government councils.
This year’s election themes include national reconciliation due to the fighting seen in regions such as Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara, and there is also a development theme as the government pledges to undertake major projects.
Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who helped facilitate the Tigray peace talks, is leading 73 observers from the African Union.
Arriving in Ethiopia on Saturday, Kenyatta emphasized the importance of Ethiopia’s elections for the continent, as the country hosts the African Union headquarters. “Ours is to call for peaceful situation as Ethiopians are known for,” he said.
Abiy’s administration has been accused of human rights violations against critics and journalists despite the promise of democracy and peace he made in 2020.
During his tenure, Ethiopia has been through the Tigray war in the north of the country, where hundreds of thousands of people died as the federal security forces clashed with the regional forces. A peace deal was signed in November 2022.
Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for solving a long-standing conflict between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea, though the two countries are currently at loggerheads, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of supporting rebel groups to destabilize it.
There are fears that the situation could escalate and drag the volatile Tigray region into a proxy war, even as relief agencies warn of a dire humanitarian situation on the ground.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front – the dominant political party in Ethiopia’s far northern region of Tigray – has been outlawed as the party maintains control of the regional government and threatens to cancel the 2022 peace agreement, which the federal government sees as an attempt to trigger another conflict.
For the second time, the region will not take part in the national election, denying it a federal voice in Ethiopia’s 547-seat parliament and further pushing it to the margins amid escalating famine and conflict, combined with the alleged denial of resources by the central government.
Tigray has been excluded from federal representation for the last six years.
This election is likely to be fair due to the “technological advancements in the electoral process” and increased public awareness, according to Bayu Samuel, an Addis Ababa-based political analyst.
Some opposition parties have, however, decried the ruling party’s unfair advantage.
The electoral process is “far from genuine and democratic,” says Mistresilasie Tamerat, the youngest candidate and head of the opposition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party.
“The system favors the ruling party, and we can’t even freely operate (or) meet with our constituents,” she said.
Eyoel Solomon, a spokesperson for the main opposition Ezema party, said it is dedicated to ending ethnic-based politics.
“We have seen citizens being attacked because of their identity. We have seen them being persecuted simply for living in areas deemed by others not to be ‘theirs’,” he said.
With much of the campaigning taking place in Addis Ababa, there has been a heavy military presence in the metropolis in recent days.
The vote has dominated local conversation across the city, even though campaigning has been unusually quiet, with fewer rallies and little door-to-door outreach.
The electoral body has declared Monday a national holiday, with government offices closed to encourage citizens to vote.
