The Phillies have made some early inquiries on the trade front for a back-of-the-rotation starter or swingman, report Charlotte Varnes and Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The back half of Philadelphia’s rotation has been an issue all season, culminating in today’s move to demote rookie righty Andrew Painter to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
The top half of Philadelphia’s rotation is excellent. Cristopher Sánchez has an argument as the best pitcher in the National League. Zack Wheeler has made a remarkable return from thoracic outlet surgery, posting a 2.01 ERA while averaging more than six innings over his first 10 starts. Jesús Luzardo has rebounded after getting blown up a few times in April.
Aaron Nola is locked into the fourth rotation spot by default, but he’s carrying an ERA around 6.00 for a second consecutive year. Nola has also become too homer-prone in the back half of his career. The final rotation spot now seems wide open. Alan Rangel and Jean Cabrera are their only other healthy starters on the 40-man roster.
Rangel has six games of MLB experience, all out of the bullpen. He has a 3.74 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks across 65 Triple-A frames this year, but he has only completed five innings in one of his last five minor league starts. Cabrera has an ERA north of 9.00 in Double-A and Triple-A. Minor league signees Tucker Davidson and Bryse Wilson have underwhelming numbers in Lehigh Valley.
It’s understandable the Phils would want to gauge the market and see if any viable back-end starters shake loose. Actually making a move is easier said than done this far ahead of the deadline. The Rockies are the only team more than 10 games out of a playoff spot.
Colorado would surely listen on any starter, but their entire rotation has gotten hit hard. Old friend Michael Lorenzen has an ERA above 7.00. Tomoyuki Sugano had an alright ERA early in the year but ugly underlying marks. Ryan Feltner has pitched well in three of his last four outings and is the most desirable trade target in the Rox’s rotation. He’s arbitration-eligible for two more seasons after this one and would probably require the Phillies to part with a mid-tier prospect.
Antonio Senzatela has found a new gear working out of the Rox’s bullpen. An acquiring team could try to lengthen him back out midseason, but that’d be a gradual process over a few weeks. Senzatela might also wind up being Colorado’s top deadline trade chip, so they could prefer to hold him until late July to try to drum up more interest from teams seeking bullpen help.
The Angels, Royals, Giants, Tigers and Red Sox are all double digit games under .500 and trending toward selling. Those teams don’t have much expendable back-end starting pitching. There’s no shortage of bigger name trade candidates (e.g. Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Sonny Gray, Reid Detmers, José Soriano, Robbie Ray), yet they’re not likely to be seriously available until close to the deadline if at all.
Drew Anderson, who began his MLB career in Philadelphia almost a decade ago, is having a nice year in long relief for Detroit. They could trade him but have a $10MM club option if they’d prefer to keep him around for 2027.
Philadelphia isn’t going to want much to do with Adrian Houser’s two-year, $22MM contract. Tyler Mahle is a rental on a $10MM salary and could be available already, but he has an ERA above 6.00 due to an elevated home run rate. Mahle is also on the injured list with a left hamstring strain; he made a rehab start yesterday and should be back on the MLB roster in a week or two. The Nationals have a couple former starters (Brad Lord, Mitchell Parker) pitching in long relief. Impending free agent David Peterson has had a miserable year with the Mets and is a clear change-of-scenery candidate.
The likeliest outcome is that the Phillies monitor the DFA market for the next month until trade season really gets underway and puts more mid-rotation names on the market. Randy Dobnak and Connor Seabold are among depth arms who have changed teams this week.
The current state of Triple-A pitching is bleak. Miami has kept lefty Braxton Garrett in the minors for the majority of the season. Cardinals non-roster lefty Bruce Zimmermann has pitched pretty well in Triple-A for a second straight year without much of a path to a rotation spot in St. Louis. Carlos Carrasco has managed decent results while bouncing on and off the Braves’ roster all year. The Phillies (or any other team) could break that cycle by placing a claim the next time Atlanta designates him for assignment, but they’ve already passed on multiple chances to do so.
