Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: juicy Lions-Ticats bets, Riders-Stampeders total

Photo courtesy: Bob Butrym/RFB Sport Photography

Can I file an expense report to Harvard Media for the spineless, leaderless and gutless B.C. Lions defence that cost me in Week 2? I’m joking, of course, but seriously — that was a sorry display.

Toronto and Montreal played to expectation last week, but the Lions defence prevented a 2-0 week for the readers, which would have been a second-straight perfect slate to start the 2026 CFL season.

B.C. enters Hamilton Stadium with the highest total since 1997, the inception of online betting.

Doug Flutie’s 1997 Argos highest-lined game was 54. But he also had a game with a total of 36, which is impossible today. Those early 1990s games, if they had lines, probably still didn’t reach 60.

Bo Levi Mitchell and Nathan Rourke, plus brutal defences and six percent more offensive snaps in games, have created a barrage of overs so far and things are getting to uncharted territory.

Below are my picks for Week 3.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats moneyline (even)
Hamilton Tiger-Cats/B.C. Lions over 59 (-110)
Kenny Lawler over 4.5 receptions (-135)

During a betting call earlier in the week, I jokingly commented that I would make this total 92.5. While I am surprised by the record-high opener of 59 points, it is not enough, and honestly isn’t unreasonable with the league running six percent more offensive plays due to new timing rules.

This is essentially an Arena Football League game on Friday. Both of these offences have quarterbacks willing to open it up, and they get the benefit of facing two absolutely atrocious defences on the other side. Unless the rain is a factor, which looks minimal now, this is a shootout.

With that said, I like Hamilton and Mitchell to outlast Rourke and B.C. Hamilton’s offence lives and dies by the deep ball. Scott Milanovich commented that efforts are being made to get Lawler more touches and reaffirmed how close he was to a 102-yard touchdown last week against Winnipeg. These two rookie cornerbacks for B.C. are such a liability that I see a huge big-play advantage here.

If B.C. has to chase, it’s a dream for the over. I also see the short rest hurting the Lions. Four days and a shortened practice week with cross-country travel is a tough spot to figure out answers defensively. In this spot, with these circumstances, I can’t have the Lions rated higher than the Tiger-Cats, no matter how bad this Hamilton defence is.

Saskatchewan Roughriders/Calgary Stampeders over 51 (-110)

As mentioned, CFL games this season are averaging six percent more offensive snaps. The average game total last season was 51.5.

As we get later into the season, this total of 51 is going to look awfully thin. Last week I wrote about the Roughriders defence being a shell of what it was last season. They conceded 420 yards to the Lions, who were down three receivers, and will now play this week without Rolan Milligan Jr.

I love listening to Derek Taylor call Blue Bombers games on the radio, and something he said during the Week 1 broadcast stuck with me.

“That was the best I have ever seen Vernon Adams play in a game he lost.”

I agree with DT. Adams was on, both through the air and on the ground. The Stamps attack was balanced and put up nearly 400 yards. Against what I see as an overrated Riders defensive unit, especially without Milligan Jr., I see something similar happening again for the Stamps offence.

Another broadcaster I love listening to is Justin Dunk on 620 CKRM here in Saskatchewan. I heard him shouting postgame to “put some respect on Trevor Harris‘ name.”

I agree with Dunk, too. Harris looked super sharp, throwing for nearly 12 yards per play and 417 yards. The Riders were the best under bet last season (12-6 to the under), and at this price, things have not yet adjusted to them being a dead over.

Let the points, league-wide, continue.

Season record: 4-1 (+3.25x)

Adam Chernoff has been betting on sports and bookmaking for the past 17 years. While he is known across the industry for NFL expertise, he bets on CFL from his home in Saskatoon during the summer.