Trade Deadline Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati initially kept pace in the tightly-packed NL Central, carrying a 20-11 record through April. An eight-game losing streak to begin May, which included sweeps against division mates Pittsburgh and Chicago, shifted the landscape for the club. The Reds now sit comfortably in fifth place. At 40-46, they’re the only club in the division with a losing record.

The Reds ended a four-year playoff drought last season by earning the final Wild Card spot. The team took advantage of a late-season collapse by the Mets to sneak into the postseason. Cincinnati was quickly dispatched by the eventual World Series champion Dodgers.

Despite the first-round sweep, the club seemed well-positioned to put together a competitive effort in 2026. Cincinnati brought back slugger Eugenio Suarez to add some pop to the lineup. The club re-upped with closer Emilio Pagan following a career-best 32 saves in 2025. Some smaller moves around the edges have paid dividends, including solid production from JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe.

Injuries have been an issue for the Reds. Ace Hunter Greene has yet to pitch in the big leagues following elbow surgery in the spring. Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz missed most of June with a hamstring strain. A hamstring issue also felled Pagan, who missed nearly two months. With Greene expected back this weekend, the Reds are about as healthy as they’ve been all year. It’s going to take an extremely hot July to reverse the club’s fortunes, especially in the fearsome National League. Cincinnati is only six games out of the final Wild Card spot, but there are five teams ahead of them.

Record: 40-46 (2.4% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Eugenio Suarez, Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, Nathaniel Lowe, Brady Singer, Tyler Stephenson, Brock Burke

Suarez has a mutual $16MM option for 2027, but it’s hard to imagine Cincinnati picking up their side of the deal, given how his 2026 season has transpired. The veteran infielder languished on the free agent market into February, despite a 49-homer campaign last year. The market seems to have made the right call in not producing a multi-year deal for Suarez. He’s posted a 74 wRC+ through 230 plate appearances. Suarez has always been a high-strikeout bat, but he’s punching out at a career-worst 33.5% clip this year. He’s managed just eight home runs. The defense has been subpar. Suarez is at -5 Defensive Runs Saved through 24 games at the hot corner. He’s likely a DH-only contributor at this point, and the offense hasn’t been good enough to entice another team.