Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: Chad Kelly complaints can lead to Toronto Argonauts cover

Photo courtesy: Bob Butrym/RFB Sport Photography

Picks last week went 2-1, and the great season continues for readers.

There are many interesting angles this week, but I only see one great bet on the board. Let’s talk about that one, and then look at the others.

Toronto Argonauts -5

Unfortunately, we do not get another chance to fade Jake Dolegala, Scott Milanovich keeping his QB decision quiet means to me the Tiger-Cats will be starting Tre Ford this week. As mentioned last week, Dolegala is not a professional-calibre quarterback, so much so that the Riders did not even prepare for him. However, Ford is not much better, and I am happy to fade.

Toronto is a pass funnel defence. No team has conceded more passing yards, completions, and big pass plays against than the Argos. By contrast, they are a league-best in rush yards per play against. Part of this is game state — the Argos score a lot — but a lot of it is that Toronto is much more talented upfront than on the back end, so it is just more effective to throw, and throw deep, on this team.

Ford does not have that ability like Bo Levi Mitchell does. I don’t believe Milanovich can effectively change the playbook to fit his skill set, and the team signing more quarterbacks this week and starting another backup last week signals that. The weather in this game is going to prevent Ford from pushing the ball deep too. There are winds in the mid-20 kilometres per hour range forecasted for its duration. I don’t see the offence being effective.

On a subjective level, I think Chad Kelly complaining about the unprecedented road swing to start the season is a positive. This team started red hot in the first three weeks, and clearly hit a wall the last two weeks against Calgary and Winnipeg. Airing out the frustration and clearing the air is a nice rallying cry to reset things before playing a “home” game in Hamilton after three weeks out West.

Until Hamilton has a professional-calibre quarterback on the roster, I want to fade them.

Other game notes this week…

I was tempted with B.C. getting three points. I don’t think the Elks’ home field is worth the 1.5 points through the three based on where this match-up closed in Kelowna on a neutral field in Week 4. B.C. dominated that game, out-gaining Edmonton by nearly two yards per play. However, storms and wind in the forecast have me staying away. The impact of any weather will hurt B.C. more than Edmonton in this match-up.

On the surface, I was tempted with the Montreal-Calgary over. It’s an early start in Calgary that is going to be super hot with perfect conditions. Heat in the CFL accelerates points and scoring, and both offences are on fire. Last week closed at 63.5 and landed at 67 with explosives leading the way. Rematch games back-to-back tend to skew to the under, which has me thinking twice about laying a historically high total over again.

Winnipeg with Zach Collaros is a fade. With Dru Brown, they are less of a fade. However, I have Ottawa as a dead fade too. I question whether Ryan Dinwiddie is fit to be a head coach in this league given his misguided commentary about personnel and their stats. The revenge factor here is evident, and it is typically an angle I love. However, this is more than priced in at this point. Winnipeg is out to -5 after opening -3.5. Can’t lay that number.

Season record: 11-3 (+7.95x).

Adam Chernoff has been betting on sports and bookmaking for the past 17 years. While he is known across the industry for NFL expertise, he bets on CFL from his home in Saskatoon during the summer.