If the 2026 season ended at the All-Star break, the Rangers would have won the AL West for the first time in a decade. They have the AL’s fifth-best record, and they’re only 1.5 games back of the White Sox and Guardians. Getting ahead of Chicago and Cleveland would put Texas on pace for not just a playoff spot and a division title but a first-round bye. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a three-in-five chance to play in October, while the PECOTA standings from Baseball Prospectus are even more optimistic. According to PECOTA, the Rangers’ postseason probability is 63.7% – only four of their AL competitors have higher odds. There’s no question the Rangers will be buyers at the trade deadline. Right?
Here’s the thing. The Rangers are only two games above .500. Their run differential is -15. Nothing about this club has looked particularly imposing all season. The position players have been mediocre at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. The rotation and bullpen have been solid but rarely dominant. Only 10 MLB teams have given up fewer runs per game, but 22 have outscored Texas on a per-game basis.
It might sound harsh, but the Rangers aren’t one of the AL’s top teams because they’ve exceeded expectations. They’re mostly just lucky that so many others have underperformed. Entering the season, the ZiPS projections envisioned an 81-81 finish for the Rangers, putting them six games back of the final Wild Card spot. They haven’t looked much better than a .500 team this year, but somehow, even a .500 record would be good enough for an AL playoff berth right now. Can Chris Young and company count on that to continue?
On paper, the Mariners are the best team in the AL West. The Rangers could also face competition in the Wild Card from several first-half underperformers; the Red Sox and Twins have surged back into contention, while the Orioles, Astros, Blue Jays, and even the Tigers shouldn’t be written off. The odds say it’s more likely than not that Texas makes the playoffs, but it’s far from a sure thing. Young will have to decide if his team’s roster is strong enough to warrant an aggressive approach at the deadline.
Another wrinkle to consider is strength of schedule. According to FanGraphs, the Rangers have one of the easier second-half schedules in the American League. However, the stretch leading up to the deadline sees them facing the Braves, Rays, and White Sox, as well as their closest division rivals, the Mariners and Astros. A winning record in those series would make the Rangers more obvious buyers, but if they struggle, their pendulum could swing back in the opposite direction. It’s more than possible that the Rangers fall below .500 before August 3. If that’s the case, it’s hard to say whether Young will be able to justify pushing in too many chips for the promise of an easier schedule ahead.
At present, buying remains the most probable course of action. Young can’t count on the competition to keep underachieving, but he can take advantage of the favorable position Texas is in and try to field a mightier team in the second half. The Rangers were soft buyers at the deadline in 2024, despite a sub-.500 record. In 2025, a midsummer hot streak pushed their FanGraphs playoff probability from 12.7% on July 8 to a high of 51.4% on July 26, convincing Young to go for it once again. The Rangers’ chances of making the playoffs in 2026, and certainly their chances of winning the AL West, are better than they were in either of the past two seasons. If they were buyers then, they really should be buyers now.
Record: 49-47 (60.8% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: High-leverage reliever, additional bullpen depth, starting pitching, catcher, Corey Seager/Wyatt Langford insurance
The Rangers started the season with a closer committee, but Jacob Latz quickly secured the role. The left-hander was one of the AL’s best relievers in the first half, with 18 saves, a sub-2.00 ERA, and more than four times as many strikeouts as walks. Latz has had help from free agent signings Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander, as well as rookie Peyton Gray. Junis is currently nursing a minor hip injury, but he was skillfully handling set-up duties before he got hurt. Alexander and Gray have ably covered the seventh inning.
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