What Prediction Markets Are Telling Us About NFL 2026 MVP

Training camps around the NFL are opening this week, which makes it the perfect time to take a peek at who could walk away with awards.

The NFL’s Most Valuable Player is always the subject of plenty of debate before, during and after each season.

Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to trade contracts of real-world outcomes, including who will be named the 2026 NFL MVP.

Here’s what those prediction markets are telling us about who could actually win the MVP award for this upcoming season.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson lead the pack

Allen and Jackson currently share the favorite position on Kalshi, who gives them each an 11% chance of winning MVP. An 11¢ contract would payout more than eight times of a return, still pretty solid value, even though they’re co-favorites.

Jackson won his first MVP with the Baltimore Ravens in 2019 before winning another one in 2023. The Ravens recently hired a defensive-minded head coach in Jesse Minter, but new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle was hired with Jackson in mind.

Similarly in Buffalo, the Bills hired new head coach Joe Brady and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael with Allen in mind. The 6-foot-5 quarterback won MVP in 2024.

Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert aren’t far behind

If Burrow stays healthy, he has a clean path to winning his first MVP award this season. Similarly, if Herbert can make some noise with the Los Angeles Chargers in a loaded AFC West, he will become a serious MVP contender as well.

They currently both have a 10% chance of winning the MVP award on Kalshi.

Burrow is the lone quarterback with a returning head coach in the AFC North, as Zac Taylor retaining his job with the Cincinnati Bengals might’ve been the biggest surprise in the division last year. With Burrow at the helm, the Bengals almost always have a lethal offense.

But will Cincinnati’s defense be good enough to help them win enough games to solidify Burrow as an MVP candidate?

Herbert will be tasked with leading the Chargers through a loaded division featuring the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders.

Plenty of parity in the third tier

Patrick Mahomes and Drake Maye are both currently getting a 7% chance to win MVP. Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford all share a 6% chance of winning MVP.

You could make a realistic argument for any of those quarterbacks.

Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels each have a 4% chance of winning MVP while Jalen Hurts, Bo Nix, Jordan Love and Sam Darnold share 3% chance of winning.

This third tier is where the real value lies.

Last season, did anybody really think Stafford would win MVP on a loaded Los Angeles Rams team at age 37? Probably not. That’s what makes some of these names so intriguing.