Key Takeaways
- Shoppers are increasingly turning away from Big Food products and moving towards fresh foods and cleaner ingredients.
- Weight-loss drugs are a major reason why customers are ignoring the calorie-heavy, ultraprocessed food found in the center of grocery stores.
- Big Food stocks are now trading at their steepest discount in at least 20 years.
Faced with falling profits, the biggest food names in America have recently begun rolling out initiatives to win customers back. Companies such as General Mills and Kraft Heinz have reduced prices, intensified marketing campaigns and infused protein into recognizable products, from Cheerios to Goldfish, to lure back shoppers.
Despite their best efforts, these companies have yet to see results. According to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal, consumers are increasingly turning away from Big Food products and moving towards fresh foods and cleaner ingredients. They are ignoring the calorie-heavy, ultraprocessed foods found in the center of grocery stores.
Weight-loss drugs are a major reason for the transition, per the Journal. More than 10% of American adults now take a GLP-1, and that percentage continues to rise.
Big Food management keeps pointing to “stressed consumers” and promises things will turn around. However, the numbers tell a different story — they show that these companies are shrinking and don’t have a viable plan to fix it.
According to the Journal, Big Food stocks are now trading at their steepest discount to the broader market in at least 20 years.
The economy contributes to the decline
The K-shaped economy is putting pressure on Big Food from both directions. Affluent shoppers are becoming more health-conscious and trading up, often toward smaller brands and premium options.
Meanwhile, lower-income consumers are stretching every dollar and shifting more of their baskets to cheaper store brands and private labels. According to the Private Label Manufacturers Association, store brands now comprise 24% of grocery store market share.
At the same time, U.S. population growth has slowed to a crawl. Between mid‑2024 and mid‑2025, the country added only about 1.8 million people, a gain of roughly 0.5%, per the U.S. Census Bureau. “What had been an advantage for this group throughout its history is now gone,” Max Gumport, director of equity research at BNP Paribas, told the Journal.
Big Food is having to work a lot harder just to stand still. General Mills, for example, has been cutting prices even when the move dents profits, simply to keep shoppers from walking away. The company still expects sales to be flat at best over the next year.
Others aren’t in much better shape. Conagra has already slashed its payout to shareholders and warned that earnings are likely to fall more than investors had hoped, while Kraft Heinz and Campbell’s are facing many of the same pressures.
Over the past decade, General Mills, Campbell’s and Kraft Heinz have each lost 50% to 70% of their values, even as the broader S&P has more than tripled.
Key Takeaways
- Shoppers are increasingly turning away from Big Food products and moving towards fresh foods and cleaner ingredients.
- Weight-loss drugs are a major reason why customers are ignoring the calorie-heavy, ultraprocessed food found in the center of grocery stores.
- Big Food stocks are now trading at their steepest discount in at least 20 years.
Faced with falling profits, the biggest food names in America have recently begun rolling out initiatives to win customers back. Companies such as General Mills and Kraft Heinz have reduced prices, intensified marketing campaigns and infused protein into recognizable products, from Cheerios to Goldfish, to lure back shoppers.
Despite their best efforts, these companies have yet to see results. According to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal, consumers are increasingly turning away from Big Food products and moving towards fresh foods and cleaner ingredients. They are ignoring the calorie-heavy, ultraprocessed foods found in the center of grocery stores.
Weight-loss drugs are a major reason for the transition, per the Journal. More than 10% of American adults now take a GLP-1, and that percentage continues to rise.
