As the August 3 deadline gets closer, it appears the Mariners are leaning towards trading a starting pitcher. It was reported last week that the M’s are telling other clubs they are willing to move Emerson Hancock, though not likely to move Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby or Bryce Miller. Today, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com echoes that reporting with a piece of his own. Kramer says the M’s don’t intend to move Gilbert, Woo, Kirby or Miller but are listening on Luis Castillo and Hancock. He adds that they would eat some of Castillo’s contract if it helps them get a “legitimate” return.
The Mariners are one of the few clubs in position to subtract some rotation depth while still taking a win-now position. The Red Sox are another, as they just traded left-hander Connelly Early to the Nationals in order to add Curtis Mead to their infield.
Seattle would seemingly like to set up a similar pitching-for-offense trade, or perhaps a deal that bolsters the bullpen. They are in position to do so because of those six aforementioned starters as well as their prospects. Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan are two of the best pitching prospects in the league and both are at Double-A Arkansas. The Mariners don’t usually send their prospects to Triple-A for very long, perhaps because it’s in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. The club might already consider them ready for the big leagues.
The Mariners could put someone on the trade block and still be in great shape in the rotation. It’s understandable that Gilbert, Woo, Kirby and Miller are the least likely to move. All four are in their late 20s, controllable beyond this season and affordable. Woo hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration but the other three have. Kramer says Kirby has “generated the most buzz” over the past week but the M’s don’t plan to trade him or the other three.
That leaves Castillo and Hancock. Castillo would be easier for Seattle to do without. He is 33 years old, turning 34 in December. His results have backed up as he has aged. He has a 4.85 earned run average this year. There’s some bad luck in there but his strikeout rate has also been declining. He punched out 27.3% of batters faced in 2023 but that number has dropped to 24.3%, 21.7% and 20.1% in subsequent campaigns.
There’s also his contract to consider. He is making $22.75MM this year and next. There’s a $25MM vesting option for 2028 if he throws 180 innings next year and passes a physical at season’s end. That’s not necessarily ace money but it is front-end starter money. In recent years, guys like Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, Sonny Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael King, Robbie Ray and others have signed deals with average annual values in the $22-25MM range.
With Castillo’s age and recent performance, other clubs probably consider his deal underwater, with about $30MM still to be paid out between now and the end of next year. If the Mariners eat some of the money, it could help them line up a favorable trade, though much would depend on exactly how much money is or is not changing hands.
MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker has the Mariners just above $168MM in terms of cash commitments. They finished last year at $167MM. The competitive balance tax isn’t a concern, as Seattle’s $201MM figure is well south of the $244MM base threshold. They don’t really need to move Castillo for payroll space, so it’s understandable why they might focus on a better return, even if that means paying a guy to play somewhere else.
Hancock would have much more straightforward appeal. He is 27 years old, is under club control for four more seasons after this one and is still over a year away from arbitration. He has a 3.16 ERA on the year, with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 41.6% ground ball rate.
Those are all appealing elements but the Mariners are clinging less tightly to him because he doesn’t have the track record of their other starters. He came into this season with a 4.81 ERA and 15.6% strikeout rate in his career. He has found a new gear but the Mariners could sell high, just in case he comes back to earth in the future.
Given that Castillo and Hancock are so different in terms of their age, salary and recent performance, they will presumably garner very different trade offers from other clubs. Controllable starting pitchers like Hancock are always in demand but the M’s will presumably set a high asking price. Castillo should be more attainable but Seattle may need to get a bit creative in making a deal line up for everyone.
One way or another, it seems there’s increasing smoke about the M’s trading a starter. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times also reports that a trade of either Castillo or Hancock is becoming more likely. Seattle has a strong bullpen, as their relief unit has a collective 3.57 ERA, fifth in the majors. Still, any contender can add in an arm or two and bump the other guys down a peg.
The offense could use a jolt, especially against lefty pitchers. The Mariners as a team are hitting .221/.304/.336 against southpaws. Their 89 wRC+ in that split is better than just four other clubs. There aren’t tons of righty bats available this deadline, especially with Spencer Steer‘s recent injury potentially taking him off the block. Ryan Jeffers, Taylor Ward, Ty France, Zach Neto and Hunter Goodman are some righties who are speculative trade candidates. However, most of them play for borderline contenders or are controllable beyond this season, so none of them are locks to move.
Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images
