9:17pm: The teams have announced the one for one swap.
8:25pm: The Braves are acquiring veteran starter Tyler Mahle from the Giants, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Reliever Anthony Molina will head back to San Francisco.
Atlanta needed some kind of mid-rotation stability behind Chris Sale. The Braves are dealing with myriad injuries in the rotation, including losing Reynaldo López to the IL this weekend. They’ve been without Spencer Schwellenbach all year following surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. Spencer Strider is shut down with an elbow issue, and the most recent reporting out of Atlanta indicates he might not return this year. Depth starter Hurston Waldrep is awaiting a second opinion on his own elbow injury and may be down for the year himself.
Mahle has a significant injury history in his own right, but he’s currently healthy. He missed around a month earlier this year with a left hamstring strain. That followed an ugly April which has weighed down his season numbers. Mahle has a 5.13 earned run average across 18 starts, though he’s been sharper since returning from the hamstring issue. The 31-year-old righty carries a 3.79 ERA with roughly league average strikeout and walk marks in his past seven starts.
An above-average starter early in his career with the Reds, Mahle is more of a #3/4 arm at this stage. His stuff hasn’t been as sharp following a series of arm injuries. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and dealt with shoulder issues in each of the last two years. Although he’s only a year removed from posting a 2.18 ERA across 16 starts with the Rangers, that came with a below-average strikeout rate and was heavily influenced by a .260 average on balls in play against him. He encountered a fairly cold market in free agency as a result, settling for one year and $10MM on his deal with San Francisco.
The ERA regression which teams expected indeed transpired, but Mahle has pushed his strikeout rate back up by three percentage points. He’s averaging 92.6 mph on his four-seamer after sitting at exactly 92 a year ago. Mahle’s best secondary offering is a splitter which plays better against left-handed batters. He doesn’t have a great breaking pitch and has accordingly had a tough time missing bats against righties, leading to notable reverse platoon splits in recent seasons.
Atlanta could continue poking around the rotation market for a playoff-caliber starter. (Mahle’s now former teammate, Robbie Ray, is a near-lock to be traded in the next 20 hours and is one speculative possibility.) Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martín Pérez all have decent ERAs but don’t have premium swing-and-miss stuff. The Braves addressed their need for a right-handed hitting outfielder with Saturday’s Lane Thomas acquisition. They’re likely to poke around the bullpen market and could be opportunistic if there’s a chance to add someone on the left side of the infield.
The Braves will assume the approximate $2.1MM remaining on Mahle’s $7MM salary. The Giants are still responsible for a $3MM signing bonus which he’ll be paid next January. Mahle is also closing in on some incentives. He’ll receive a $500K performance bonus when he throws another 5 1/3 innings. He’d get another $1MM for reaching 25 and 50 more innings after that. The highest incentive is probably out of reach, but Mahle should bank a total of $1.5MM in performance bonuses if he stays healthy. Those payments will be split between the two teams, prorated based on his respective workload with each club.
More to come.
